Waymo is buying national scale with tariffed Chinese vans, two states at a time

The van carrying the expansion

The growth vehicle of America's largest robotaxi service is a boxy Chinese minivan. The Ojai, built by Zeekr, a brand of China's Geely, is now about a third of Waymo's Texas fleet ¹. Each crosses the Pacific as a shell, no cameras or connected-car technology aboard, waiting for the truck to Mesa, Arizona, where Waymo and Magna install the sixth-generation driver ².

Half a million rides, two states

Waymo averages 500,000 paid rides a week ¹³, across 15 U.S. cities, up from three in September 2024 ¹³. The fleet stands near 4,000 vehicles ³⁴, and about 80% of them run in California and Texas; roughly 800 cars cover every other market ¹³. Wall Street is pricing a national rollout: Uber is reported to be weighing about $10 billion for autonomous vehicles, $7.5 billion of it purchases ⁵.

The tariff more than doubles the van

The Ojai was picked to be the cheap robotaxi. Import declarations put the Zeekr shell at about $38,000 leaving the factory↗ ²⁶. Which tariff stack applies is disputed, 102.5% on one reading and 127.5% on another, and Waymo has not said what it pays ². The shell lands between roughly $78,000 and $86,500 before a sensor is bolted on, and the driver kit adds a disclosed $20,000 to $25,000 ².

Even tariffed, a kitted Ojai at roughly $111,500 runs about $90,000 under the estimated $200,000 all-in cost of the Jaguar I-Paces it replaces ²⁶. TechCrunch↗, noting Alphabet's majority ownership, reports Waymo appears willing to swallow the tariff to keep buying scale ¹. Analyst Tu Le counters that Geely is likely discounting the vans and may be eating part of the tariff itself↗ ⁷.

Texas is where the vans landed

State registrations show the surge↗: about 600 Waymo vehicles in Texas in June, just over 700 at the end of August, and 1,102 on 24 September, up 57% since August ended ¹³. MoffettNathanson, tracking the imports through customs receipts, puts Waymo on pace for 5,100 Ojais by year-end ¹³. Not all are earning fares: an August count of the Mesa lot found 684 finished Ojais, while Waymo said about 300 were in service ²⁸.

The bill that takes aim at the shell

Congress is moving on the supply chain. The Connected Vehicle Security Act, S.4429, cleared the Senate Commerce Committee without dissent↗ and counts 51 co-sponsors ⁹. It would bar connected vehicles "designed or made by" Chinese-linked companies, phasing in from 2027 for software and 2030 for hardware ²⁹¹⁰. Whether a shell with no Chinese parts and an American-installed brain satisfies that test is unadjudicated; Commerce has issued no advisory opinion, though it used the ownership standard to expel Polestar, another Geely brand, in June ².

The hedge is already on the lot: finished Hyundai Ioniq 5 robotaxis, built in Georgia, appeared at Mesa for the first time in August ². A fast-track Senate vote slipped on 24 September while sponsors negotiate with a lone holdout↗ ¹⁰.

Watch the permits, not the city count

Waymo wants one million rides a week by the end of 2026 ⁴. Until then the Mesa gap binds: in August, finished vans staged in Arizona outnumbered those earning fares more than two to one, which points to permits and operations, not supply ²⁸. The bill's hardware stage is a 2030 question, and even swift passage would not settle the tariffs and rules governing near-term access ¹⁰. The 15-city story is being financed two states at a time, on hardware Washington is moving to phase out.