West Virginia will hear whether data-center power demand is overstated, in a fight over NextEra's line
A West Virginia hearing opening October 26 will put data-center load forecasts that PJM does not independently validate under oath in a fight over billions in transmission wire. The same doubt already prices NextEra's stock, its October 21 earnings and the $67 billion Dominion merger.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
The charge: billions in wire priced off forecasts nobody checks
On October 26, 2026, the West Virginia Public Service Commission opens an evidentiary hearing on the MidAtlantic Resiliency Link, NextEra's+0.05% — NextEra, up 0.05 percent today transmission line across the state into Virginia 1. The paper is lopsided: 341 pages of rebuttal testimony from 10 NextEra officials against 29 pages from Anthony Campbell, president of West Virginians Against Transmission Injustice 1. Campbell argues that cancellations, withdrawals and delays of planned data-center projects mean the forecast load may be overstated, and the commission's own question concedes the soft spot: PJM does not independently validate load forecasts 1.
The answer is priced far beyond Charleston. NextEra carries a $162.5 billion market value, reports third-quarter results on October 21, and has a $67 billion Dominion−0.02% — Dominion, down 0.02 percent today merger waiting on a Virginia docket 45.
The skeptics' receipts: cancellations are on the record
Campbell quoted a FERC commissioner who tied "a clearer picture of which projects will materialize" to deciding who should bear the costs of that growth 1. The world outside the docket supplies exhibits. Goldman Sachs+1.48% — Goldman Sachs, up 1.48 percent today said in May that only 50 to 60 percent of planned data-center capacity will come online in the next two years 2. Local opposition killed at least 20 proposed data centers in the first quarter of 2026, the most of any quarter on record 2.
NextEra's receipts: violations by 2027
Ryan Colley, NextEra's executive director for development, testified that PJM has found reliability violations arriving "as soon as 2027-28" that risk "system collapse and blackouts" 1. PJM's 2030 summer peak forecast rose nearly 16 percent across three forecast cycles, he said, evidence that regional needs keep compounding rather than receding 1.
A study commissioned by the Pennsylvania PUC lands on NextEra's side, modeling PJM's 2030 loss-of-load expectation at six to 100 times its planning criterion, largely from data-center additions; PJM itself agrees demand is growing faster than generation 3. NextEra adds local math: $133 million in property taxes over the project's life, $65 million to landowners, 200 to 300 construction jobs 1.
Who pays if the load never shows
Data-center developers have taken a Ratepayer Protection Pledge, which PJM cites as shielding households from the reliability risks and cost increases of building for them 3. Campbell's filing ties verified load data to who should bear the costs of growth 1. If the megawatts never arrive, the line stays, and PJM ratepayers across the region carry the cost of wire built for load that never came.
The doubt is priced, both ways
Mizuho cut its NextEra target to $80 from $95 on October 6, kept a neutral rating, and now sits at the bottom of the street's targets; the stock closed at $77.88 against a 52-week high of $98.75 48. The rest of the street has not followed: 18 Buy ratings against five Holds, an average target of $98.95 48. Second-quarter revenue of $7.53 billion grew 12.4 percent yet missed the $8.11 billion consensus 4. Third-quarter results land on October 21 4.
Mizuho's $80 target sits at the bottom of a street still at $98.95
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Last close | $77.88 |
| Mizuho target | $80 |
| 52-week high | $98.75 |
| Street average target | $98.95 |
NextEra revenue has grown year over year for six straight quarters
Data
| Revenue | |
|---|---|
| Q3 '24 | $7.57B |
| Q4 '24 | $5.39B |
| Q1 '25 | $6.25B |
| Q2 '25 | $6.7B |
| Q3 '25 | $7.97B |
| Q4 '25 | $6.5B |
| Q1 '26 | $6.7B |
| Q2 '26 | $7.53B |
The verdict watch
Virginia then weighs the same question inside the $67 billion Dominion merger: evidentiary hearing from November 17, decision due by January 11, more than 50 formal parties including Governor Abigail Spanberger, and Lieutenant Governor Ghazala Hashmi, the first statewide official to formally oppose, on the record against it 56. The PSC rules on the line by March 6, 2027 1. In Charleston, the claim that AI demand is overstated stops being a take and becomes testimony.
Deepdive
AI-generated from this story and its cited sources. Not investment advice.
