Xcel's $70 billion grid plan starts with a $6 billion stock sale
A day after beating estimates and lifting its five-year capital plan to $70 billion, Xcel Energy filed to sell up to $6 billion of stock, taking potential share supply to roughly $12 billion against $8 billion of planned equity. Shareholders are the AI buildout's first funders.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
A $70 billion plan, then a $6 billion stock filing
On Friday, October 30, Xcel Energy+0.96% — Xcel Energy, up 0.96 percent today signed an agreement letting Barclays−3.55% — Barclays, down 3.55 percent today, Goldman Sachs−3.64% — Goldman Sachs, down 3.64 percent today, J.P 1. Morgan and 19 other banks sell up to $6 billion of its common stock at market prices, at commissions up to 1%, live from Monday's session 1. The filing came a day after the Minneapolis utility reported third-quarter ongoing earnings of $1.52 a share, ahead of the $1.39 FactSet+2.98% — FactSet, up 2.98 percent today estimate and up from $1.24 a year earlier, on net income of $960 million against $524 million 23.
It narrowed 2026 guidance to $4.10 to $4.16, began 2027 guidance at $4.48 to $4.62, and lifted its capital plan for 2027 through 2031 to $70 billion, 17% above the prior plan, including about $7 billion for data centers already under contract 24.
About $12 billion of share supply against $8 billion of equity
The 8-K also retires the May 2026 program with $448.6 million unsold, and leaves $3.8 billion of shares promised under forward sale agreements from that program plus $2.2 billion more from an August 2025 predecessor 1. With the fresh capacity, Xcel holds roughly $12 billion of potential share sales: one and a half times the $8 billion of equity in a financing plan that also adds $26 billion of debt 2.
About $12 billion of share supply now stands against $8 billion of planned equity
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| New ATM program (Oct 30, 2026) | $6B |
| Forwards from May 2026 program | $3.8B |
| Forwards from Aug 2025 program | $2.2B |
The dilution is running. Diluted shares reached 632 million against 595 million a year earlier; 10.5 million shares settled in the third quarter for $819 million; equity financing subtracted $0.10 from quarterly earnings per share 2. Capital spending has exceeded operating cash flow in all of the last 12 quarters 5.
Capex has outrun operating cash flow in all of the last 12 quarters
- Capital expenditures
- Operating cash flow
Data
| Capital expenditures | Operating cash flow | |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 '23 | $1.61B | $0.97B |
| Q1 '24 | $1.54B | $1.05B |
| Q2 '24 | $1.83B | $1.19B |
| Q3 '24 | $1.78B | $1.74B |
| Q4 '24 | $2.22B | $0.66B |
| Q1 '25 | $1.99B | $1.03B |
| Q2 '25 | $2.43B | $1.08B |
| Q3 '25 | $3.06B | $1.77B |
| Q4 '25 | $3.44B | $0.21B |
| Q1 '26 | $3.02B | $1.7B |
| Q2 '26 | $2.95B | $1.1B |
| Q3 '26 | $3.29B | $2.07B |
Bulls raised targets; the demand forecast is the soft spot
Barclays lifted its target to $94 from $85 on October 30; the 20-analyst mean is $88.58 against a $79.82 close 3. Chief Financial Officer Brian Van Abel says more than 40% of the equity is already contracted, with rate base growing about 11% a year and EPS growth above 10% on average from 2027 to 2030 6.
Chief Executive Bob Frenzel has pledged that "existing customers should not subsidize new large loads" 4; his proposed Minnesota rate freeze for 2027 and 2028 awaits a state decision requested by January 2. Midwest peer Alliant Energy+1.09% — Alliant Energy, up 1.09 percent today lifted its own capex 19% to $15.9 billion the same week, on 3.4 GW of contracted data-center demand 9.
In PJM, 42% of forecast data-center growth is already gone
The soft spot is the forecast itself: PJM's market monitor counted 4,016.9 MW of data-center load canceled or delayed by September 21, 42% of the growth that grid had projected 8.
Watch the 79.4 million unsettled forward shares, worth at least $5.8 billion 2, and whether the 4 GW data-center target closes on schedule 7. The AI buildout has already collected its first payment, and it came from the shareholder register.
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