Ameren names Google and Amazon on 2.8 gigawatts of signed deals and needs $5 billion of new shares
On the November 6 earnings call, Ameren put names behind 2.8 gigawatts of signed power deals, a $25 billion Google and Amazon buildout, and sized the shareholder bill: about $5 billion of new equity that management itself names as the gap between 13.3% rate-base growth and 8% to 10% earnings growth.
Richard Tangtwo-minute read
Ameren's+0.04% — Ameren, up 0.04 percent today $38.1 billion grid plan has its named customers at last, and the buyer of the build is clear too: shareholders 12. On Friday's earnings call, the St. Louis utility said Google and Amazon−0.12% — Amazon, down 0.12 percent today data centers sit inside 2.8 gigawatts of signed electric service agreements, long-term contracts covering a combined $25 billion of planned investment in its Missouri territory 12. It also sized the equity bill behind the whole plan: roughly $5 billion of new shares from 2027 through 2031, with about $1.7 billion already sold forward 1.
That dilution, management said, is the main reason earnings per share grow 8% to 10% from 2027 through 2031 while rate base, the utility's invested capital that state regulators let it earn a return on, grows 13.3% 1. Our November 6 piece noted the plan had no named customer; the names and the financing gap are what changed this week 1.
Management's own gap: 13.3% rate-base growth against 8-10% EPS growth
- Estimate
Data
| Value | Range | |
|---|---|---|
| Rate base growth | 13.3% | — |
| Electric sales growth | 12.9% | — |
| EPS growth (estimate) | 8–10% | 8–10% |
The funnel is wide at the top and thin where it counts
The signed 2.8 gigawatts, reaching full capacity in 2030, carry most of the 2.9 gigawatts of new Missouri load behind a 12.9% compound annual sales-growth assumption for 2027 through 2031 12. What is signed is the thin part of the pipeline. Another 1.2 gigawatts sits under construction agreements and 4.4 gigawatts has cleared interconnection studies 12.
CEO Marty Lyons expects more agreements to be signed in 2027, which he said could push investment beyond the $38.1 billion plan 12.
Ameren's signed data-center load is the thin part of a wider funnel
The 2.8 GW Ameren has signed is smaller than the pipeline still waiting behind it
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Signed service agreements | 2.8 GW |
| Construction agreements | 1.2 GW |
| Interconnection studies done | 4.4 GW |
Who pays, and who carries the risk
Google+1.01% — Google, up 1.01 percent today and Amazon carry the load; shareholders fund the wires and power plants. Ameren plans about 7.7 gigawatts of new generation, and has filed the 2.1-gigawatt West Alton gas plant for service in 2031 12.
The risk sits in timing. Lyons cautioned that construction delays at customer sites can slip sales and earnings 1, and the Illinois Commerce Commission rules by December on a $2.7 billion distribution plan that a judge has already recommended trimming by about $200 million 1. The wider backdrop turned hostile this week: voters backed data-center restrictions in 40 of 41 local ballot measures in the midterm elections 23.
The December ruling and the 2027 signings test the promise
What to watch next is whether the additional agreements Lyons expects in 2027 actually get signed, and how the Illinois ruling lands in December 12. The 8% to 10% earnings promise is the 13.3% build minus the dilution from about $5 billion of new shares 1.
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