Constellation Energy reports Monday: consensus 2028 EPS of $16.80 needs 7 to 18 gigawatts, only 1.1 signed
Constellation Energy reports Monday with consensus EPS already above its guidance midpoint, and the 2028 estimate rests on gigawatts nobody has signed. The math says roughly 7 to 18 gigawatts of new contracts; 1.1 are locked in.
Vincent Jiangtwo-minute read
Constellation Energy+4.59% — Constellation Energy, up 4.59 percent today, the largest US nuclear operator, reports third-quarter results Monday November 9, and the stock will not be graded on the quarter 13. It will be graded on megawatts nobody has signed yet. The shares closed at $249.95 on November 6, down 12.3% in a month and 29.2% year to date, against a utilities sector up 0.6% on the year 13. Consensus expects EPS of $3.88 and revenue of $9.35 billion, with revenue estimates revised up five times and never down over three months 6.
Constellation fell 12.3% in a month as the utilities sector gained 4.8%
AI power names fell as their own sector rose before Constellation's print
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Utilities sector | 4.8 |
| Constellation (CEG) | -12.3 |
| NRG | -17 |
| Vistra (VST) | -20.1 |
The math the market is trading
The gap between signed and priced is the whole story. Analysts see normalized EPS rising from $9.39 in 2025 to $16.80 in 2028, a $7.41 climb 1. Management's own arithmetic prices a long-term contract at $0.40 to $1.00 of base EPS per gigawatt of nuclear output contracted 1.
Ignoring every other driver, the 2028 consensus needs roughly 7 to 18 gigawatts of new agreements 15. What is signed so far is about 1.1: the October Google package of 3,590 MW, including 890 MW of new uprates on a 20-year term, plus Amazon capacity, together about 1,080 MW of uprates on 20-year terms 15. First uprate power arrives only in 2028; full delivery by 2032 5. Only about 30% of Constellation's clean baseload output was under long-term contract as of August, before those deals 1.
Only 1.1 of the 7 to 18 gigawatts the 2028 consensus needs are signed
Signed megawatts cover a fraction of what the 2028 EPS number assumes
- Estimate
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Signed so far | 1.1 GW |
| Needed, low end (estimate) | 7 GW |
| Needed, high end (estimate) | 18 GW |
Guidance is already beaten; signings and Texas are the risks
First, guidance. Management will revisit 2026 adjusted operating earnings of $11.50 to $12.50 a share, and consensus normalized EPS already sits at $12.21, above the midpoint 1. Second, signings. New long-term agreements would fill the pipeline behind a conditional $5 billion federal loan for uprates at eight plants 1. Third, Texas. The Calpine gas assets now sit under governor-elect Gina Hinojosa, who campaigned on an immediate moratorium on new data-center permits; Morgan Stanley−0.82% — Morgan Stanley, down 0.82 percent today already flags Texas power companies, Constellation included, as vulnerable to that policy shift 4.
Consensus has EPS climbing 79% from 2025 to 2028, above the 2026 midpoint
Consensus already sits above the guidance midpoint and assumes a 79% climb by 2028
- Normalized EPS
- Estimate
Data
| Normalized EPS | |
|---|---|
| 2025 | $9.39 |
| 2026 (estimate) | $12.21 |
| 2028 (estimate) | $16.8 |
Demand is real; delivery is what slips
Buyers are not imaginary, but delivery is. Microsoft spent $45.2 billion on capital expenditures last quarter, about $5 billion below plan, because third-party data-center capacity it expected to rent was not ready on time; IREN's+20.35% — IREN, up 20.35 percent today Childress, Texas site was one provider behind 2. A supplier that slips on one contracted megawatt has, on the evidence, real company.
Monday's report is the first scheduled reading. Fewer than about two gigawatts of new signings and that $16.80 for 2028 has to come down.
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