Coinbase rose 9% as $20 billion left hacked Binance, and tonight's midterms test the bounce
Goldman Sachs named Coinbase, Robinhood and BitGo best-positioned to catch the $20 billion leaving Binance after the record hack, then called the event a net negative for the group. Tonight's midterms, where prediction markets make Democrats favorites for both chambers, test the 9% bounce within 24 hours.
Vincent Jiang · 2 min read
Coinbase+5.71% — Coinbase, up 5.71 percent today rose as much as 9% on November 3 after Goldman Sachs−0.36% — Goldman Sachs, down 0.36 percent today named the exchange, the broker Robinhood+1.38% — Robinhood, up 1.38 percent today and the custodian BitGo+3.31% — BitGo, up 3.31 percent today "best-positioned" to catch customers fleeing Binance, which lost $6.3 billion to a hack on October 29 1. Nearly $20 billion, 14% of Binance's platform assets, has left since 1. The same note cut the other way: Goldman called the event "a negative for our digital assets coverage," citing lower balances and thinner trading 1. The bank that lifted the stock spent the same paragraph lowering the group's revenue base.
The exodus is loose change next to Coinbase's base
Even if every fleeing dollar landed at Coinbase, it would add less than a tenth to the $245.9 billion of customer assets the exchange held on June 30 1. The tape sides with the caution.
US bitcoin funds bled $1.04 billion across Friday and Monday, and BlackRock's−0.31% — BlackRock, down 0.31 percent today iShares Bitcoin Trust took $405 million of Monday's withdrawals, its worst day since June 26 23. Futures traders sold $2.7 billion net over seven sessions while spot buyers stayed in 2. Coinbase's own quarterly revenue has roughly halved since late 2024, from $2.27 billion to $1.22 billion 4.
The $20 billion leaving Binance is a sliver of Coinbase's customer base
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Coinbase customer assets | $245.9B |
| Left Binance since hack | $20B |
| Midterm prediction-market bets | $1.9B |
| Bitcoin ETF outflows, 2 days | $1.04B |
Coinbase quarterly revenue has roughly halved since late 2024
Data
| Revenue | |
|---|---|
| Q4 '24 | $2.27B |
| Q1 '25 | $2.03B |
| Q2 '25 | $1.5B |
| Q3 '25 | $1.87B |
| Q4 '25 | $1.78B |
| Q1 '26 | $1.41B |
| Q2 '26 | $1.22B |
| Q3 '26 | $1.22B |
Prediction markets lean toward the sweep crypto fears
Polls close tonight with nearly $1.9 billion wagered on the midterms at the prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket 5. Polymarket puts Democrats at 78% to win the Senate and 95% to flip the House; Kalshi reads 78% and 93.9% 5.
Jaret Seiberg of TD Cowen says that sweep hands Senator Elizabeth Warren the Senate Banking Committee gavel and stalls the Clarity Act, the market-structure bill whose Senate vote already failed 49-50 on September 15, for two years 6. Prediction markets, crypto's own instruments, are pricing the outcome the industry spent $176 million across more than 100 races to avoid 6.
Russell Thompson, chief investment officer at the Hilbert Group, says a significant Democratic win "is not priced into the price of Bitcoin" 2. The bulls' answer: Re7 Research calls the vote a possible clearing event, and Fidelity's bitcoin fund was the only one with Monday inflows 23.
Circle reads the stablecoin leg tomorrow
Stablecoins are about a quarter of Coinbase's revenue: $307 million last quarter, earned on balances of USDC, the dollar token issued by Circle+5.22% — Circle, up 5.22 percent today 17. Coinbase holds roughly 30% of all USDC in circulation 7. Circle reports third-quarter results on Wednesday morning 8. The returns land tonight; Circle's balances land at 8 a.m 8.
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