CenterPoint's $70.7 billion capital plan hangs on 12 GW Texas froze until a December audit
The utility told investors 12 GW of large-load demand will energize on its Houston grid by 2030 and lifted its ten-year capital plan to $70.7 billion. AEP's 10-Q, filed a day later, shows ERCOT has paused the review that decides whether any of it connects.
Richard Tang · 3 min read
CenterPoint's−3.48% — CenterPoint, down 3.48 percent today newly raised $70.7 billion capital plan rests on demand Texas has ordered verified and nobody has checked yet 2. Its third-quarter investor update, filed October 27, expects about 12 GW of new large load energizing on its Houston Electric grid by 2030, against a system peak of 21 GW today, a jump of more than 55% 1.
A day later, American Electric Power−0.45% — American Electric Power, down 0.45 percent today, another utility that wires parts of Texas, described the same queue from the other side in its quarterly filing. Governor Greg Abbott ordered every Batch Zero load verified and every data-center project above 25 MW audited, and ERCOT, the grid operator for most of Texas, has paused the classification and study work that decides who connects 2. The spending is committed before anyone has confirmed the megawatts.
CenterPoint's ramp to 12 GW clears only if ERCOT's audit keeps the queue standing
ERCOT paused the study behind this ramp; December decides what stands
- Expected cumulative energization
- Estimate
Data
| Expected cumulative energization | |
|---|---|
| 2027 (estimate) | 3GW |
| 2028 (estimate) | 8GW |
| 2029 (estimate) | 11GW |
| 2030 (estimate) | 12GW |
Only part of the queue even qualifies
Batch Zero is the one-time process ERCOT set up to review large-load interconnection requests, primarily loads of 75 MW or greater, ahead of a recurring batch framework 2. It splits requests into two categories, and the split decides timing.
Base load is capacity ERCOT counts on for planning; the amount included is set in a determination expected in December 2026 1. Studied load is the slower path: further study, allocations in April 2027 that can come in below what a project asked for, and reclassification into the category can delay a project's energization 1.
CenterPoint sorted its own 17 GW of submissions ahead of ERCOT's ruling 3, and its base-load bar already requires completed studies plus a security deposit covering the interconnection 4. About 10 GW meets that bar; 5 GW qualifies for neither category 1. The slides never mention the pause; their endnotes concede that actual customer demand may run below the load interconnected 1.
Ten of CenterPoint's 17 submitted gigawatts meet its base-load bar
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Submitted to ERCOT | 17 GW |
| Meets base-load bar | 10 GW |
| Qualifies for neither | 5 GW |
The audit now sets the schedule
ERCOT's July operations report shows what the state is checking: of the large loads approved to energize, under half their approved capacity showed up at the month's peak 5. New data-center halls fill slowly 5, so that gap is timing as much as intent, but it is measurable and Texas is measuring it.
Every Batch Zero developer must answer a formal information request within ten business days, notarized, on pain of exclusion from the process, and ERCOT files its verification and community-impact reports with the state commission on December 10 5. Abbott ordered the freeze in August, with about 474 GW of connection requests pending, roughly 90% of them data centers 6. Until verification finishes, no large load in the queue will be authorized to energize 2.
The money is posted, and ratepayers hold the other side
Standing in this queue now costs real money. AEP Texas received about $2 billion of financial security from developers behind 45 GW of requests 2. A state rule adopted in September requires $50,000 per MW before a project even enters a study, under a law written to reduce stranded infrastructure costs 2. If the load survives the audit, CenterPoint's shareholders own the growth; if it does not, Houston ratepayers still own the wires.
Indiana, which CenterPoint also serves, previews the politics: the Hoosier Environmental Council told the Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission that a roughly 700 MW data-center deal there sends the economic benefit out of state while Hoosiers keep the pollution and the grid costs 7.
December's survival rate is what the plan is worth
If most of the queue survives, Texas has to find that much new supply; if it shrinks, the wires already in the plan still have to be paid for by someone 5. CenterPoint is already preparing a Batch One submission for next year 3. Watch ERCOT's base-load determination, then the state commission's December 17 meeting, where the audit reports are discussed 5. The survival rate, how many requested megawatts are still standing, is the number that reprices the plan and decides when Houston's queued load can plug in.
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