CoreWeave's 300,000 GPUs come off contract paid for; its $47 billion of debt is not
The AI cloud landlord raised prices twice inside the quarter and rents short-term capacity at up to $40 million a megawatt. The same week Goldman Sachs cut its multiple on data center earnings to 4.5x from 7.5x, and the gap between those views lands on shareholders and the lenders behind about $47 billion of debt.
Vincent Jiangthree-minute read
The fleet comes home paid for
Michael Intrator, chief executive of the AI-cloud landlord CoreWeave+16.01% — CoreWeave, up 16.01 percent today, spent Tuesday night's earnings call on the fleet. About 130,000 GPUs come off contract in 2027 and roughly 170,000 more in 2028, every one fully paid off by the end of its initial contract 1. None of them retire. They are, in his words, "strong opportunities to monetize into short-term contracts" 1. The stock rose 7.9% to $52.58 after hours 2, a week after a 52-week low of $40.58 that October's put market had already priced for 2028.
Two price raises in one quarter
The market those chips re-enter is the one CoreWeave just repriced. It raised prices on new capacity about 25% in July and another 10% later in the quarter; short-term contracts command up to $40 million per megawatt a year against $20 million to $25 million for four- and five-year deals, and short-duration deals pay back their hardware capex in six to 18 months 1.
Old silicon is repricing too: prices for Nvidia's−5.72% — Nvidia, down 5.72 percent today Ampere and Hopper GPUs rose 30% to 50% sequentially in the quarter, above original contract levels, worth about $4 billion of potential 2027 renewal revenue and $10 billion through 2028 at current prices 3. IREN+1.22% — IREN, up 1.22 percent today, a former Bitcoin miner now renting out AI compute, just re-let four-year-old H100s at double their old rate on a multi-year deal 4.
Short-term capacity rents at up to $40M a megawatt, near double long-dated rates
The short-term rate pays hardware capex back in six to 18 months
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| 4-5 year deals, low end | $20M |
| 4-5 year deals, high end | $25M |
| Short-term deals, top rate | $40M |
Goldman's 4.5x verdict
Goldman Sachs+1.63% — Goldman Sachs, up 1.63 percent today answered the same week. Its note cut the multiple it puts on data center earnings to 4.5x from 7.5x, a repricing of the whole neocloud basket rather than one stock, and trimmed IREN to $30 from $50 while keeping a Neutral rating 45. Cantor Fitzgerald went to $47 from $99 and JPMorgan to $55 from $65 6. The fight under the targets is what a four-year-old GPU is worth in 2028 6.
Three banks cut IREN price targets by 15% to 53% in five days
- Old target
- New target
Data
| Old target | New target | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | $50 | $30 | -40.0% |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | $99 | $47 | -52.5% |
| JPMorgan | $65 | $55 | -15.4% |
The debt on the other side
Both camps read the same filing. Revenue of $3.66 billion, up 168%, beat the $3.54 billion consensus 72, on a record $132.5 billion backlog and full-year guidance lifted to $13 billion to $13.3 billion 2. Below the line, operating income of $207 million covered barely a quarter of the $846 million interest bill, the net loss was $709 million, and fourth-quarter interest is guided to $1.05 billion to $1.15 billion 2.
Quarterly revenue has grown sixfold in two years, to $3.66 billion
Revenue rose 168% in a year while the stock sat near its lows
Data
| Revenue | |
|---|---|
| Q3 2024 | $0.58B |
| Q4 2024 | $0.75B |
| Q1 2025 | $0.98B |
| Q2 2025 | $1.21B |
| Q3 2025 | $1.37B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.57B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.08B |
| Q2 2026 | $2.58B |
| Q3 2026 | $3.66B |
Interest already outruns the operating line
Interest costs grew 173% over the past year, slightly faster than revenue's 168%, and run at more than twice adjusted operating income of $379 million, as D.A 28. Davidson analyst Gil Luria points out 28. Adjusted profit is not expected until the first half of 2028 1. With about $47 billion of debt and bonds that have yielded more than 16% 8, the company leans on $9 billion of expected customer prepayments, contract-backed loans and the at-the-market share program parked in September 2. The GPUs have paid for themselves. The debt has not.
The second read arrives Thursday
Nebius+11.41% — Nebius, up 11.41 percent today, the Amsterdam-listed rival AI cloud, reports on Thursday, November 12, the next reading on demand for rented compute 2. The settling number arrives next year, when the first 130,000 GPUs reprice, and management's renewal math is built on current pricing 3. If those rates hold, the depreciation school is wrong. If they soften when the supply wave lands, the lenders will own a fleet of paid-off chips.
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