FirstEnergy reserved Siemens turbines for a $2.7 billion plant whose customer has not signed

On October 28 FirstEnergy▲+1.31% — FirstEnergy, up 1.31 percent today told investors it has reserved Siemens gas turbines, due in 2030, for a 1,200 MW plant at Maidsville, West Virginia, and asked for bids on 3 GW of additional gas plants↗ ⁴. The customer meant to take that output is unnamed, and the offtake deal is under negotiation, not signed ².

The company gave no cost for the plant on its earnings call ¹; trade reporting puts the project near $2.7 billion ⁴. A certificate can be approved before the customer signs: the utility expects the West Virginia commission to issue it in the fourth quarter of 2026, while the offtake remains in talks ⁴.

The quarter that paid for it

Third-quarter profit rose to $557 million from $441 million a year earlier↗, on revenue of $4.56 billion, up 9.9% ¹. But 10 of the 15-cent rise in core earnings came from the corporate segment, mainly income-tax benefits ¹. The engine underneath is capital: $36 billion committed for 2026 through 2030, targeting 10.4% annual rate-base growth (growth in the utility's invested capital base, which is what regulated rates pay a return on), with $4.9 billion invested in the first nine months, 23% more than a year earlier ¹.

The load is a forecast, the wire is a bill

Here is the awkward number. FirstEnergy expects its transmission plan to rise at least 25%, from $19 billion to $23.75 billion or more, when the plan rolls forward to 2027 through 2031 in February ¹. Most of that extra money is reliability work on the existing network, with very little tied to contracted data-center demand, and upgrades for contracts signed since February 2026 are not in the plan at all ¹.

The AI load is mostly not here yet. Contracted demand sits at 2,190 MW for 2026, 6,730 MW for 2031 and 7,880 MW for 2036↗, against 19,070 MW of pipeline; Utility Dive counts the combined queue at 26 GW this quarter, up from 6.4 GW contracted in the second ²⁴.

Every signed gigawatt is a line on someone's bill

At the company's own rule of thumb, about $250 million of network upgrades per gigawatt ²⁴, every contracted gigawatt is a line on someone's bill. Ohio ratepayers have noticed: a discussion thread on FirstEnergy's latest rate increase drew 273 upvotes in a week↗ ³.

Management's answer, from CEO Brian Tierney, is that the giant cloud operators (the hyperscalers) are looking well beyond 2030, with demand broad across the six-state territory ⁴. That is a bet on load that has not contracted yet.

Who carries the equity

The financing terms are already on the page. The current plan allows up to $2 billion of equity or equity-like financing, new common stock should run about 1% of market value a year, and any extra West Virginia and transmission spending through 2030 is to be funded with up to 35% equity or equity-like securities ¹.

If the buyer pays part of the Maidsville plant through a surcharge, the plant still needs about 35% equity or equity-like funding ¹. Shareholders, not the customer, absorb the first tranche of risk on a deal that has not been signed.

Three dates settle it

Three dated events will decide whether the queue becomes billable. Ohio's staff report on the rate case lands November 30 ¹. West Virginia's commission is expected to rule on the Maidsville certificate by December 31 ¹.

In February, the roll-forward lifts the transmission plan at least 25% and shows how much of the 27 GW queue becomes rate base, and how much new stock it takes ¹. The decision rule: hold the stock only if the February plan ties the extra transmission money to contracts that are actually signed, and treat an unsigned offtake after the West Virginia order as a signal to wait.

Deeper dive: our October 30 piece on the 7.9 GW demand count is here↗.