Goldman maps 45% of the 586 GW US data center pipeline into states that may pause it; 199 GW is being built

Cipher Digital▲+0.10% — Cipher Digital, up 0.10 percent today, a Texas data-center developer that has all but exited bitcoin mining, fell 13.3% to $5.63 by November 6, 2026, after governor-elect Gina Hinojosa pledged to halt new data-center approvals in the state ¹. Applied Digital▼−5.42% — Applied Digital, down 5.42 percent today and TeraWulf▼−1.65% — TeraWulf, down 1.65 percent today, rivals with more diversified operations, dropped 15.4% and 12.5% on the same pledge ¹. On November 11, Cipher rose 9.9% to $7.18 ². No Texas permitting action appears in the coverage this piece draws on between those two dates; the rally tracked results from CoreWeave▼−7.91% — CoreWeave, down 7.91 percent today, an AI cloud provider, and a broad market gain ².

45% of the pipeline sits in states leaning toward a pause

Goldman Sachs▼−1.08% — Goldman Sachs, down 1.08 percent today estimates that states likely to tighten their data-center rules hold about 45% of planned US capacity↗, with Texas alone at roughly 25% ³. The count has company. Cleanview puts 158.6 GW, 41% of the national pipeline, in states where incoming governors pledged pauses, and Barclays▼−1.38% — Barclays, down 1.38 percent today found 80% of the roughly 300 GW pipeline it rates high-probability will sit under Democratic governors next year ³. Of the 586 GW announced nationwide, just 199 GW is being built, and Goldman calls that permitted, under-construction slice the defensible one, better positioned than the paper announcements if approvals stall ³.

The exposure runs through the debt behind the paper

Lenders financed much of that paper, and by late October banks were already writing $9 billion a week of default insurance on AI debt↗ ⁴. Hinojosa, a Democrat who defeated the incumbent Republican governor, Greg Abbott, on November 3, takes office on January 19 having pledged "a moratorium" on "all data center approvals" until the Legislature passes protections↗ ⁴. Abbott had already halted new grid connections on August 3; ERCOT, the state grid operator, was tracking more than 400 GW of proposed projects ⁵.

Cipher signed $16.6 billion of leases and collected $27 million

Cipher is the sharpest test of the map. Its three Texas campuses total 700 gross megawatts, fully leased, worth $16.6 billion of contracted revenue over 17.3-year average terms, against $146 million of trailing revenue and debt equal to 190.4% of its market value ⁶.

Last quarter it booked about $27 million of revenue, including its first $5.9 million of rent from the Black Pearl campus↗; net income of $31.6 million arrived with an adjusted EBITDA loss of about $10 million ⁷. The building was paid for with borrowed money: total debt went from $23 million to $5.6 billion in ten quarters ⁸. The $16.6 billion is worth what Texas lets it become ⁸.

Goldman stays constructive while the analyst board splits $27.50 to $9.50

Goldman's own call is that restrictions prove temporary and long-run demand holds through 2027 ³. CoreWeave's quarter backs the demand half: $3.66 billion of third-quarter revenue, up 168% year over year↗, a $132.5 billion backlog, and guidance raised to between $13 billion and $13.3 billion ².

On Cipher itself the desks disagree by nearly three to one. Morgan Stanley▼−0.24% — Morgan Stanley, down 0.24 percent today cut its target to $27.50 but kept an overweight rating; Keefe, Bruyette & Woods cut the stock to market perform at $9.50 on November 4, the day after the election ⁹. The gap likely turns on how much of Cipher's Texas pipeline each desk thinks a pause can stop.

Rent has started; the ramp waits on January 19

Black Pearl has begun paying rent. Barber Lake's first 51 megawatts are declared ready for service, with halls energizing from this quarter into early 2027, and Cipher reports again in February with lease revenue on its own line ⁶. The Texas Tribune's read is that approvals could stay paused until legislators pass new laws ⁴; Hinojosa takes office on January 19, between the first rent and most of the ramp.