IREN is down 13.5% in two sessions on the FT's recount of OpenAI's revenue; 16 Buy ratings still see $81.13
The FT's recount of OpenAI's annualized revenue, near $50 billion rather than the near-$70 billion in circulation, knocked 13.5% off IREN in two sessions. Outage claims now sit under the British Columbia sites behind IREN's GPU debt, and 16 Buy ratings point at $81.13 from a $35.71 tape.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
Two sessions, minus 13.5 percent
IREN−2.45% — IREN, down 2.45 percent today closed at $35.71 on October 8, down 7.7% on 54.3 million shares, after a 6.27% fall the session before 12. The afternoon catalyst was a Financial Times report that OpenAI's$1.18T — OpenAI, private, latest valuation $1.18T annualized revenue runs near $50 billion, roughly $20 billion under the near-$70 billion figure in circulation since late September 3. The semiconductor index slid from -1.7% to -3.4% within fifteen minutes and did not recover 4.
The gap is accounting. The repricing was not.
OpenAI books revenue net of cloud partners; the bigger number was a gross figure investors built to compare with Anthropic$350B — Anthropic, private, latest valuation $350B, and two-month growth runs about 70% on either basis 345. Credit did not wait for the reconciliation: Nvidia−0.38% — Nvidia, down 0.38 percent today-backed Firmus postponed a float of as much as $5.5 billion, the neocloud ETF holding IREN fell 7.2% the same day, and the 10-year Treasury yield sits at its highest level since 2002 67.
What the silicon costs to finance
Under its $9.7 billion Microsoft+2.35% — Microsoft, up 2.35 percent today contract, IREN must spend $5.8 billion on chips and $3 billion on other costs, with $3.7 billion of chip financing lined up; Blue Owl led a $2.4 billion package behind its Canadian campus 7. Fiscal 2027 carries $25 billion to $30 billion of capex against $14 billion named, and customers prepay 45% to 55% of GPU capex, a stack that holds while the contracts hold 8. The coupon ladder prices exactly what a signature buys 910.
GPU debt costs 6.78% with rated offtakers and 9.95% without
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Lambda (2 rated offtakers) | 6.78% |
| CleanSpark (none named) | 7.88% |
| IREN Mackenzie facility | 9% |
| SharonAI | 9.95% |
The market charges IREN 222 basis points more than Lambda$10.40B — Lambda, private, latest valuation $10.40B for the same Nvidia silicon, and the difference is two rated signatures 910.
The sites under the collateral
SemiAnalysis, citing user reports, flagged multi-day power outages at Prince George and Mackenzie in British Columbia, called them the worst sites in the industry, and asked IREN to stop calling its service managed cloud; the company has not answered publicly 210. Co-CEO Daniel Roberts said in August that the remaining capacity there "is targeted for the December quarter" 10. IREN has missed consensus EBITDA in four straight quarters, June's $19.2 million landing 54% under estimate, and JonesTrading's Kevin Dede counts Microsoft as its only investment-grade customer 10.
EBITDA swung from a $443 million peak to a $384 million loss over three quarters
- Revenue
- EBITDA
Data
| Revenue | EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 '24 | $0.04B | -$0.01B |
| Q4 '24 | $0.07B | $0.01B |
| Q1 '25 | $0.09B | $0.03B |
| Q2 '25 | $0.12B | $0.16B |
| Q3 '25 | $0.16B | $0.44B |
| Q4 '25 | $0.12B | -$0.15B |
| Q1 '26 | $0.1B | -$0.08B |
| Q2 '26 | $0.1B | -$0.38B |
Sixteen Buys against the tape
Consensus still carries 16 Buy ratings and an $81.13 average target, against debt-to-equity of 1.80 and a beta of 4.26 1. OpenAI answered on Friday with a promise of at least $70 billion net by December 31, delivered while raising $30 billion 5. Retail leaned the same way: a 13,900-vote poll on the selloff asked holders whether they were buying, holding or selling, and the messages beneath it ran to dip-buying 11.
November 5, then December 31
The next print is expected around November 5, with consensus near $65 million of EBITDA, more than triple June's 10. Behind it sit the $8 billion of still-targeted financing and the renewal decisions of British Columbia's renters 810. December brings the number OpenAI's lenders now price against 5.
Deepdive
AI-generated from this story and its cited sources. Not investment advice.
