MaxLinear says it will take 20% to 30% of Credo's next 1.6T cable market, and Credo reports in December
Credo's copper cables run the AI data center floor and the stock has halved from its high. MaxLinear's chief executive has named his share target, and an early-December earnings report decides whose math holds.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
Kishore Seendripu, chief executive of chip supplier MaxLinear−4.92% — MaxLinear, down 4.92 percent today, spent his October earnings call paying Credo−8.13% — Credo, down 8.13 percent today Technology an odd compliment: by his estimate, Credo owns "93% or maybe 99%" of the active electrical cable market, the copper links that carry data between AI servers and their switches. Then came the threat. MaxLinear, he said, will chase 20% to 30% of the next-generation 1.6T cable market, with first revenue in 2027 and volume in 2028.
"The market is diversifying now because the problem is getting a lot more complicated," he told investors. Credo fell 13% in a week and 28% in a month, on no news of its own. 1
A $3.88 billion line to defend
The moat is the valuation. Analysts expect revenue, which more than doubled last quarter, to nearly double again this fiscal year to $2.50 billion, and pencil fiscal 2028 at $3.88 billion. 1 That second line is what a lost copper share would break. The optics Credo bought with DustPhotonics are meant to reach only $600 million by fiscal 2027. 2
Record quarter, half-priced stock
The fiscal first quarter, ended August 1, should have settled the argument: revenue of $479.0 million, up 114.7% year on year, non-GAAP net income of $236.3 million. 3 The filings show strain instead. GAAP gross margin slipped to 64.5% from 68.2% the prior quarter, and cash and short-term investments fell to $764.3 million from $1.44 billion in the quarter Credo closed DustPhotonics, leaving $986.4 million of goodwill on the books. 3
The cash lag was flagged here in September. Selling came from inside too: chief technology officer Chi Fung Cheng sold 27,500 shares for $4.5 million on October 27 under a trading plan adopted in September 2025. 4
Credo's revenue has grown eightfold in nine quarters, and the guide points higher
- Revenue
- Estimate
Data
| Revenue | |
|---|---|
| Q4 FY24 | $0.06B |
| Q1 FY25 | $0.06B |
| Q2 FY25 | $0.07B |
| Q3 FY25 | $0.14B |
| Q4 FY25 | $0.17B |
| Q1 FY26 | $0.22B |
| Q2 FY26 | $0.27B |
| Q3 FY26 | $0.41B |
| Q4 FY26 | $0.44B |
| Q1 FY27 | $0.48B |
| Q2 FY27 guide (estimate) | $0.53B |
Where the fight starts
Third-party research house Edgewater sees little sign of large 1.6T deployments arriving soon, 1 but it did find the opening: Cisco−3.77% — Cisco, down 3.77 percent today, the networking giant, is seeking quotes for 100,000 cables a month for an in-house 1.6T program, with signal processors sourced from Broadcom−5.24% — Broadcom, down 5.24 percent today or MaxLinear and the assemblies from Amphenol−3.18% — Amphenol, down 3.18 percent today and TE Connectivity−4.18% — TE Connectivity, down 4.18 percent today. 5 A rival win there pulls the 2028 fight into 2027. 1
One session repriced the chain
On October 30 Credo closed at $150.99, down 8.65%, while Coherent−10.40% — Coherent, down 10.40 percent today lost 11.34%, Applied Optoelectronics 12.80%, Astera Labs−10.58% — Astera Labs, down 10.58 percent today 10.93% and Lumentum−8.16% — Lumentum, down 8.16 percent today 8.57%. 6 7 The stock sits at barely half its $302.52 high, on a market cap of $28.38 billion. 2
October 30 took down every optical name, Credo included
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| CRDO | -8.65% |
| COHR | -11.34% |
| AAOI | -12.8% |
| ALAB | -10.93% |
| LITE | -8.57% |
| FN | -6.13% |
The arithmetic the bulls still hold
MaxLinear sells only the chip, and a hyperscaler that wants one company answerable for the whole cable has reason to stay with Credo. 1 Demand keeps rising: Super Micro−4.15% — Super Micro, down 4.15 percent today lifted its quarterly revenue forecast by $4 billion at the midpoint. 1 At roughly 20 times forward earnings against a three-year average of 64, and an average analyst target of $284, the camp that calls the selloff overdone has the numbers. 1
Credo's hedge, the 1.6T ZeroFlap Active Light Cable announced on October 12, draws 12 watts per end and reaches 50 meters; it ships in 2027, and its 100-million-hour reliability figure is a target, not a field result. 8 An Open Compute Project micro-emitter specification Credo leads, alongside AFL, ams OSRAM, BizLink, Foxlink, Heraeus Covantics, SENKO and YOFC, is due for approval in 2027. 8
The door opens in December
The verdict lands in early December, when Credo reports fiscal second-quarter results against guidance of $525 million to $535 million. 3 That report is the first test of whether any 1.6T orders exist, and management must show them while its own optical answer ships in the same year the rival's revenue starts 3. Copper built the moat. December says whether anyone is through it.
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