POET lost every Marvell order after its CFO spoke. The rebuild is one $50 million deal
Six days after POET's finance chief discussed order details on camera, Marvell canceled every purchase order and the shares fell 47.3% in a day. A securities suit and 22.8 million shares short now sit against a $50 million Lumilens order and an optics market sold out through early 2029.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
One interview, then every Marvell order gone
POET Technologies, the Toronto chip designer whose Optical Interposer puts lasers and electronics on one module, had booked just $2.3 million of revenue since 202012. On April 21, chief financial officer Thomas Mika said in a video interview that POET was "in NDAs with suppliers to hyperscalers," then discussed shipment timelines and purchase orders tied to Celestial AI~$2.5B — Celestial AI, private, latest valuation ~$2.5B, a startup acquired by chipmaker Marvell−5.87% — Marvell, down 5.87 percent today1. Marvell's cancellation notice arrived on April 233; when POET told investors on April 27 that every purchase order was gone over what Marvell called unauthorized disclosure, the shares fell 47.3% in a day13.
A fraud complaint meets a market sold out to 2029
The complaint filed on April 28 in the District of New Jersey, covering purchases from April 1 to 27, alleges POET, chief executive Suresh Venkatesan and Mika misled investors about the company's passive foreign investment company tax status, a US classification with punitive rates for unprepared holders, and about a binding Marvell confidentiality agreement the interview had denied1. Those are allegations, not findings. Wolfpack Research had set the stage on April 14, calling POET "an obvious stock promotion" built on a share count up 303% since the end of 2022; the stock fell 8.08% that day41.
The other side of the market is not in dispute. Lumentum chief executive Michael Hurlston said on October 9 that his optical parts are "completely sold out" through early 2029, with 30% shortfalls on some lines through 2028, and Nvidia−2.86% — Nvidia, down 2.86 percent today has put $2 billion each into Lumentum and Coherent−8.03% — Coherent, down 8.03 percent today5.
The rebuild is one customer and a very large bank account
On May 14, POET and Lumilens, an optics manufacturer, signed a supply agreement with an initial $50 million order for interposer-based engines, built to pass $500 million over five years if development and qualification succeed; engineering samples are due late this year, volume production in 20276. A $400 million placement closed on May 18, and the June quarter ended with $796.3 million of cash and short-term investments47. Revenue that quarter was $569,925, up 112% and the sixth straight sequential rise, against a $12.2 million operating cash outflow7.
At $7.79 on October 9, near the floor of a $3.87 to $20.81 range, the market value stood at $1.35 billion; by October 14 the shares traded at $6.3228. Short interest doubled after the cancellation, from 14.6 million shares at the end of April to 30.6 million by mid-May, and sat at 22.8 million at the September 15 settlement42.
Short interest doubled after the cancellation, then eased
Data
| Shares short | |
|---|---|
| End April | 14.6M |
| Mid-May | 30.6M |
| 15 Sep settlement | 22.8M |
A $1.35 billion market cap against $2.3 million of lifetime revenue
- Estimate
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Market cap, 9 Oct 2026 | $1,350M |
| Lumilens ceiling, 5 years (estimate) | $500M |
| Lumilens initial order | $50M |
| Revenue since 2020 | $2.3M |
Six straight quarters of growth, to $570,000 a quarter
Data
| Quarterly revenue | |
|---|---|
| Q4 '24 | $30K |
| Q1 '25 | $170K |
| Q2 '25 | $270K |
| Q3 '25 | $300K |
| Q4 '25 | $340K |
| Q1 '26 | $500K |
| Q2 '26 | $570K |
Both camps are reading the same facts
Mika has called short sellers "maggots" and the tax warning "a big nothing burger," a net loss having left United States holders nothing to declare, and POET has since supplied the data for a 2025 QEF election, the filing that blunts the passive foreign investment company hit10. Citadel and Jane Street hold stakes11. Bears answer with $830 million of equity issued this year, a price-to-sales ratio near 1,089, and a German retail forum that produced 46 posts in five days, all demanding verifiable contracts812. On the night the optics group rallied on Hurlston's words, POET rose about 1% and retail sentiment on the ticker stayed "bearish"5.
The clock is the Malaysia ramp
The suit has cleared its late-June lead-plaintiff deadline, and the board has shelved a United States redomiciling, so the tax question stays open47. What settles the argument is output: high-volume 800G production targeted for the third quarter of 2026 at its Malaysia line, more than 30,000 optical engines guided for the year, and a nine-year Lumilens warrant for 22.9 million shares at $8.25 that vests only as payments land86. The line for optical parts runs to early 2029. The bet is whether POET is in that line or beside it.
Deepdive
AI-generated from this story and its cited sources. Not investment advice.
