Pure Storage, now Everpure, fell 10.4% at 27.3x forward earnings as Kioxia points to flat flash prices
Kioxia, the Tokyo NAND maker, guided December-quarter flash prices to almost flat after a 70% jump, and Everpure fell 10.4% the day the warning hit Tokyo trading. Its November 18 report must now carry a 27.3x forward multiple on cooling scarcity.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
Kioxia's December guide marks the turn in flash
Kioxia, the Tokyo NAND flash maker that rivals Samsung, SK Hynix+2.77% — SK Hynix, up 2.77 percent today and Micron+2.21% — Micron, up 2.21 percent today, closed down 15.8% in Tokyo on November 2, the biggest drag on the Nikkei by Reuters' count 13.
The sell-off answered results released after Japan's close on October 30: December-quarter operating profit guided to ¥2 trillion ($12.7 billion) against roughly ¥2.32–2.35 trillion expected, off a September quarter that delivered ¥2.48 trillion of revenue, up 40% sequentially, at an 80.2% adjusted operating margin 13.
What broke was the price line. Kioxia's−15.78% — Kioxia, down 15.78 percent today average NAND selling price rose in the mid-20% range in the September quarter after 70% in the prior one, and the new guidance implies almost flat quarter-on-quarter rises ahead 13.
Bernstein still counts memory contract prices up nearly 20% in the third quarter, with shortages running into 2027, but says the room for further increases is narrowing and long-term agreements with price caps will limit resets 2. TrendForce had NAND contracts up 55–60% in the first quarter of 2026 alone 4.
Kioxia's NAND price gains went from 70% to near flat in two quarters
- NAND ASP change
- Estimate
Data
| NAND ASP change | |
|---|---|
| Apr–Jun 2026 | 70% |
| Jul–Sep 2026 | 25% |
| Oct–Dec 2026 (guided) (estimate) | 0% |
Everpure sits on the buying side of that price
Everpure+3.71% — Everpure, up 3.71 percent today, the Santa Clara all-flash array maker renamed from Pure Storage in February, reports third-quarter results on November 18 for the quarter ended November 1 69. Its FlashArray and FlashBlade systems are built on flash 9, so Kioxia's cooling prices cut both ways: cheaper NAND relieves an input cost, while the shortage that carried hyperscale demand loses its tailwind.
The tailwind was real. Product revenue rose 54% to $687 million in the August quarter, the full-year outlook was lifted to $5.03–5.07 billion, and revenue growth, which had run 11–20% for two years, printed 35% and then 38% as flash went scarce 510.
Everpure's revenue growth doubled when flash went scarce
Data
| Revenue growth | |
|---|---|
| Q1 '24 | -14.4% |
| Q2 '24 | 29.6% |
| Q3 '24 | 20.7% |
| Q4 '24 | 11.4% |
| Q1 '25 | 12.3% |
| Q2 '25 | 12.7% |
| Q3 '25 | 16% |
| Q4 '25 | 20.4% |
| Q1 '26 | 35.2% |
| Q2 '26 | 37.7% |
$238 million burned, $355 million sold
The same quarter consumed $238 million of free cash flow 5, and insiders sold $355.4 million of stock over the past year without buying any 7. Shares fell 7.5% on October 30 and 10.4% on November 2 to $113.78, a 27.3x forward P/E 78.
Eleven quarters of positive free cash flow, then Everpure burned $238 million
Data
| Free cash flow | |
|---|---|
| Q3 '23 | $0.05B |
| Q4 '23 | $0.2B |
| Q1 '24 | $0.17B |
| Q2 '24 | $0.17B |
| Q3 '24 | $0.04B |
| Q4 '24 | $0.15B |
| Q1 '25 | $0.21B |
| Q2 '25 | $0.15B |
| Q3 '25 | $0.05B |
| Q4 '25 | $0.2B |
| Q1 '26 | $0.11B |
| Q2 '26 | -$0.24B |
The Inference reported on October 22 that the raise came from storage demand rather than the renamed platform; nothing filed since says how much of that demand survives cheaper flash, and no document separates the memory read-through from the broader tech rout.
November 18 has to carry the multiple
Kioxia's own defense is timing, not demand: chief financial officer Yoshihiko Kawamura cited ¥55 billion of currency drag, orders pulled forward into September, and enterprise-storage deals slipping into the March quarter, with 2027 capacity already allocated and long-term agreements covering more than half of expected 2028 shipments 3. SK Hynix calls its 2026 capacity sold out 4. Prices are rising more slowly, not falling.
That leaves Everpure's gross margin, product growth and fourth-quarter guide to stand under the multiple 8, before chief financial officer Tarek Robbiati repeats the story at Wells Fargo−0.55% — Wells Fargo, down 0.55 percent today on December 8 and Barclays−0.57% — Barclays, down 0.57 percent today on December 10 6. Kioxia has shown what deceleration looks like; Everpure has fifteen days to show it can grow without it.
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