Quanta Services fell 11.65% on the election, and $22 billion of its record backlog is only an estimate
Quanta Services fell 11.65% on November 4 as Democrats swept Congress, and another 10% today. What the market repriced is the $22 billion of its record backlog that is still only an estimate, a number its own filings never isolate.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
The election flipped a Bernstein rally in one session
On November 3, Bernstein named Quanta+3.92% — Quanta, up 3.92 percent today a preferred name with an $804 target, counting 244 gigawatts, or 56% of the 433-GW US data-center pipeline, as facing political risk while arguing the projects would still get built, with developers absorbing more of the grid costs 36. Quanta rose 4.99% to $652.18 that day 3.
Voters answered on November 4: Democrats took the House and Senate, and Texas elected Gina Hinojosa, who campaigned on a stricter data-center moratorium 2. Quanta closed at $580.44, down 11.65%, while the S&P 500 rose about 2%; Comfort Systems fell 16.31% and EMCOR+2.89% — EMCOR, up 2.89 percent as of its last quote 9.86% 12. The selling resumed on November 5, with Quanta near $520, down about 10%, in afternoon trading 9.
The grid contractors fell while the market rose
Data
| Nov 4 move | |
|---|---|
| Quanta | -11.65% |
| Comfort Systems | -16.31% |
| EMCOR | -9.86% |
| S&P 500 | 2% |
$22 billion of the record backlog is not yet an order
The reprice lands on a split inside Quanta's own third-quarter release, published October 29 4. Firm contracted work, which the company calls remaining performance obligations, was $41.75 billion at September 30 4. Estimated orders under master service agreements and short-term contracts added $21.98 billion, and that sum is the record $63.73 billion backlog 4.
In the Electric segment, $14.53 billion of $51.89 billion is estimate rather than order 4. The market handed down an 11.65% verdict on a number Quanta never prints: neither the release nor the 10-Q quantifies data-center revenue or backlog at all 5. The Inference reported the backlog itself on November 2; new since is the repricing, and the firm-versus-estimated split underneath it 5.
The firm half doubled in a year regardless
A year earlier the split was $20.97 billion firm and $18.20 billion estimated 4. Firm orders doubled in twelve months; the estimated layer grew about a fifth. Third-quarter revenue was $12.01 billion, up 57% from $7.63 billion, adjusted diluted EPS was $6.06 against a $5.03 consensus, and net income attributable to common stock was $694.9 million 34.
Revenue growth accelerated to 57% year over year in Q3
Data
| Revenue | |
|---|---|
| Q2 '24 | $5.59B |
| Q3 '24 | $6.49B |
| Q4 '24 | $6.55B |
| Q1 '25 | $6.23B |
| Q2 '25 | $6.77B |
| Q3 '25 | $7.63B |
| Q4 '25 | $7.84B |
| Q1 '26 | $7.88B |
| Q2 '26 | $9.56B |
| Q3 '26 | $12.02B |
Management raised 2026 guidance to $41.3 billion to $41.6 billion of revenue and $17.90 to $18.30 of adjusted EPS, and chief executive Duke Austin pointed to "opportunity to deliver strong double-digit adjusted EPS growth in 2027" 4. No customer reached 10% of revenue in the first nine months of 2026 5.
Firm contracted work doubled to $41.8B; the estimated layer barely moved
Most of the backlog jump is firm orders, not estimates
- Firm contracted work (RPO)
- Estimated MSA and short-term orders
Data
| Firm contracted work (RPO) | Estimated MSA and short-term orders | |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2025 | $20.97B | $18.2B |
| Dec 31, 2025 | $23.76B | $20.21B |
| Sep 30, 2026 | $41.75B | $21.98B |
What converts and what stalls
On the earnings call, Austin said Quanta added roughly 12,000 employees organically this year, that growth is not dependent solely on data centers, and that the big 765-kilovolt transmission builds have not yet materially entered backlog, with Texas and Ohio bookings possible in the first half of 2027 7. The utility base, about $20 billion of Electric activity, is designed for 10% to 12% margins 7.
The tell is the estimated slice at each quarter-end: if it shrinks, master service agreements stopped issuing work. The first hard readings come with the fourth-quarter report expected in February 2027, when guidance arithmetic implies adjusted EPS of $4.92 to $5.32 against the third quarter's $6.06 5.
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