Robinhood's $173 million event contracts and Kalshi face a Nov. 30 hearing after a Louisiana judge's ban
Robinhood's event contracts earned $173 million last quarter and passed crypto as a revenue line. The venues those trades route through are named in the order, and a November 30 hearing decides whether the ban holds.
Vincent Jiangthree-minute read
The ban came the same night as the suit
Louisiana did not wait for the litigation to play out. Hours after Attorney General Liz Murrill sued ten prediction-market platforms on November 12, Judge Jeffrey Johnson of Tangipahoa Parish signed a temporary restraining order barring them from offering or facilitating event contracts, yes-or-no wagers on outcomes from games to elections, to anyone in the state 123. The order requires the platforms to block Louisiana users by geolocation and holds for ten days, with a hearing on a longer injunction set for November 30 3. As of 7 p.m 2. Thursday, Kalshi users in Louisiana could still buy contracts 2.
Louisiana is suing Robinhood's fastest-growing product
The suit names Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood−5.68% — Robinhood, down 5.68 percent today, Coinbase−3.34% — Coinbase, down 3.34 percent today, Gemini, ForecastEx, Crypto.com, Novig, Underdog and ProphetX 14. For Robinhood, the listed name in the group, event contracts earned $173 million in the third quarter, six times a year earlier and ahead of crypto's $120 million; customers traded 5.9 billion contracts in October, up 136 percent from a year earlier 56. The Inference tracked Robinhood's October deadline to answer Ohio on the same contracts 56.
Prediction markets now out-earn crypto at Robinhood
Event contracts passed crypto revenue at Robinhood
Data
| Q3 2026 revenue | |
|---|---|
| Options | $399M |
| Prediction markets | $173M |
| Equities | $121M |
| Crypto | $120M |
The app kept trading through the venue Louisiana banned
This morning Robinhood still listed a 15-minute Treasury-yield contract at 99 cents, and its own terms route event contracts through KalshiEX, ForecastEX, Rothera or Nadex 7: the same Kalshi a state judge has now ordered blocked in Louisiana. Robinhood is Kalshi's largest distribution partner 6. A Robinhood spokesperson said its contracts are federally regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission 4. Kalshi sued Louisiana in federal court on October 23, arguing the Commodity Exchange Act, the federal derivatives statute, preempts state gambling law, and its emergency request filed Thursday awaits a ruling 12.
Washington has picked a side, for now
The Justice Department and the CFTC sued Arkansas on November 12 to stop that state enforcing its gambling laws against Kalshi 9, and Louisiana is the eleventh state to sue a prediction market 4. Murrill put the state's case in one line: "It's not complicated: if you aren't a licensed gaming operator, you aren't legal" 2. Kalshi's head of litigation, Jovy Dedaj, answered: "The operation of federally-regulated exchanges is the exclusive province of the federal government. Full stop." 2 The federal shield has cracks of its own: the CFTC is investigating whether Kalshi properly notified it of proposed contracts 4.
Kalshi's $65 billion talks are the first number repriced
The November 30 hearing, the ruling on Kalshi's emergency motion, and Robinhood's November operating data 6. Robinhood's hedge is Rothera, its own exchange venture with the trading firm Susquehanna, which passed $100 million in annualized revenue last quarter 6. Kalshi, valued at $40 billion on October 29, is in talks at $65 billion 8. If more states can shut the product in their own courts, Kalshi's $65 billion talks are the first number repriced 8.
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