Texas DMV counted 43 Tesla Cybercabs in one day, 465 total, the first check on Tesla's robotaxi miles
The Texas DMV ledger printed 43 Cybercab registrations in one day, a 465 total, inside a 970-vehicle fleet. It is the first independent check on the self-published miles counter Tesla's stock trades on, weeks before December's fleet-sales date.
Vincent Jiang · 2 min read
Tesla's−0.83% — Tesla, down 0.83 percent today robotaxi story trades on a number the company publishes itself: weekly driverless miles on its own safety page. On October 25 that counter got its first independent check, and it came from an unlikely auditor, the state of Texas.
The ledger prints a big day
The Texas DMV registration ledger shows Tesla's robotaxi unit registered 43 Cybercabs on October 25, 11 earlier then 32 more, taking the Cybercab running total to 465 1. Two independent Tesla-tracking accounts on X, fsd_database and Texas AV Tracker, both log the same event: the Texas robotaxi fleet now stands at 970 vehicles, of which roughly 463 are Cybercabs 23.
The registry reconciles with Wall Street
Bank of America's October 22 note says Cybercabs make up 45% of the Texas fleet; 465 of 970 is about 48%, close enough given counting lag between the trackers and the ledger 125. The reconciliation matters because the bank's bull case, a Buy rating and a $460 target, rests on unsupervised miles doubling roughly every four weeks: 380,000 on July 22, 1 million by September 3, about 2 million by September 30 45. Tesla added roughly 3.3 million by late October, reported the same day it reported the 2 million figure 45.
Tesla's unsupervised miles doubled roughly every four weeks
- Cumulative unsupervised miles
- Estimate
Data
| Cumulative unsupervised miles | |
|---|---|
| Jul 22 | 0.38M miles |
| Sep 3 | 1M miles |
| Sep 30 | 2M miles |
| late Oct (estimate) | 3.3M miles |
Fleet registrations are the denominator under the curve
Twenty-percent weekly mile growth only holds if vehicles keep arriving and carrying riders, and for months the only public fleet figure was Tesla's own. Now investors on both sides have an auditable series: bulls can verify the deployment the compounding requires, bears can time where the curve breaks. CleanTechnica's projection, Tesla passing Waymo nationally in about 11 weeks at current growth, works only if registrations keep printing like Saturday's 4.
Who pays while the curve compounds
The cash bill comes first. Bank of America's−0.88% — Bank of America, down 0.88 percent today own model has Tesla free cash flow at minus $4.6 billion in 2026 and minus $11.3 billion in 2027, with 2026 capital spending cut to about $20 billion from $25 billion, all before robotaxi becomes a profit line 5. Shareholders are funding the miles the counter counts.
December is the test
The unresolved gap is utilization: a registered Cybercab is not one earning miles, and only Tesla publishes that ratio. Tesla has dated first Cybercab sales to outside fleet buyers for December, and the DMV ledger is the baseline that launch will be judged against 15. Investors now hold a weekly, state-held series to check the fleet growth behind the miles, before the outside-fleet gate opens.
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