Texas names Sherman ideal for a two-plant, $45 billion chip project, and TSMC is the presumed buyer

Sherman, Texas, sits 15 miles south of the Red River, and state paperwork now puts it first in line for a two-plant, $45 billion chip complex ¹. Site-screening documents obtained by The Real Deal↗, reported on October 30, 2026, describe a search for two fabrication plants and the $45 billion to build them, with a state note calling Sherman an ideal candidate ¹. The documents do not name the company ¹. The same day, TSMC's▼−5.31% — TSMC, down 5.31 percent today New York-listed shares fell 5.95 percent in a selloff that stripped 7.2 percent from the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ².

The buyer is unnamed; the schedule is not

The presumptive buyer is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, producer of more than 90 percent of the world's most cutting-edge chips, already pledged to $265 billion in Arizona ³. Bloomberg has reported the company sizing space in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex ¹, and chief executive C.C. Wei said on October 15: "We sent the teams to Texas to do all the evaluation↗" ³. The September quarter was the best in the company's history: revenue of $46.72 billion, up 41.2 percent, at a 66.4 percent gross margin, with fourth-quarter guidance of $52.3 billion to $54.3 billion ⁴⁵.

The bill lands years before the revenue

This year's capital budget runs $60 billion to $64 billion, up from $52 billion to $56 billion, and the company says investment from 2026 through 2028 will be "substantially higher" than the prior three years ³⁴. Wei said in January that this spending adds little output before 2028 ⁵. The last capex peak, in 2022, was followed by a 9 percent revenue decline in 2023 ⁵. The stock has voted with the calendar: down 11 percent in October, about 16 times forward earnings ⁵.

The scarcity case cuts the other way. Anthropic's October 26 IPO filing↗ says most advanced chip capacity sits at TSMC in Taiwan, that TSMC has at times been unable to meet demand, and that capacity outside Taiwan remains in early stages ⁶. Taiwan's Commercial Times reports a CoWoS price increase of up to 20 percent being prepared for the packaging step that joins an AI processor to its memory, which TSMC has not confirmed ⁷⁸.

Sherman already has an incumbent

Texas Instruments▼−3.50% — Texas Instruments, down 3.50 percent today committed $46 billion last year to a 1,200-acre complex in Sherman, planned at four plants, one of them complete; GlobalWafers makes wafers across town ¹. The city draws water from Lake Texoma, has bought water rights, and is planning an 84-inch pipeline running 27 miles to a second reservoir ¹. If the state now pays for two more plants, the money lands beside the incumbent rather than with it. Texas has paid at this scale once already, Samsung's $44 billion Taylor complex, as we reported on October 17 ¹.

What settles it

Three readings matter: October revenue, due around November 10; any Texas incentive package for the two plants; and the 2027 guidance in mid-January ⁵. AnthropicPVT$350B — Anthropic, private, latest valuation $350B prices its IPO in mid-November, a vote on the demand side of this ledger ². Foreign funds have already moved, selling a net NT$994.3 billion of Taiwanese shares in October, and the Taiex, where TSMC is more than 40 percent of the index, broke its 120-day moving average on Friday ². Sherman has the water for two chipmakers. Texas has not said which one it pays.