Wolfspeed's BorgWarner deal landed with 51.81% of its float short before the November 4 report
Consensus expects a $1.98 per-share loss on essentially flat revenue on November 4; the figure both sides have priced differently is whether Wolfspeed's AI data-center growth finally gets a dollar number.
Richard Tang · 3 min read
Wolfspeed−12.92% — Wolfspeed, down 12.92 percent today reports fiscal first-quarter results after the market close on November 4, three trading days from now 2. The silicon carbide maker from Durham, North Carolina enters the print with 51.81 percent of its float sold short, 27.4 million shares, per Benzinga data published October 29 1. That is a bet against a specific claim: Wolfspeed has said its AI data-center revenue roughly doubled for three consecutive quarters in fiscal 2026 3, and the shorts are betting it never becomes a dollar figure on the income statement.
It is also a crowded bet in an illiquid stock, and crowded bets pay out badly when the news is merely less bad than feared.
The BorgWarner deal is the anchor the shorts did not price
The short case was written before October 28, when Wolfspeed signed a multiyear supply agreement with BorgWarner, the drivetrain and power-electronics supplier 4. The deal ties Wolfspeed's 1200-volt Gen 5 silicon carbide devices to BorgWarner's next-generation 800-volt EV inverter platform, and Wolfspeed says its manufacturing has fully transitioned to 200-millimeter wafers 4. No revenue figure was disclosed 4.
The agreement does not rescue the quarter, but it weakens the thesis that Wolfspeed's new capacity has no committed customers behind it. The same week, Wolfspeed commercially introduced transparent silicon carbide for AR optics and quantum computing, available now on 200-millimeter wafers with 300-millimeter technology in development 5.
Neither item is a dollar figure. Both are evidence that the 200-millimeter transition is finding buyers beyond the AI data-center story the shorts are shorting.
The pessimism has numbers behind it
In the quarter ended June 28, revenue fell 24 percent to $149.6 million with a net loss of $145.3 million 2. Consensus for the quarter now due is a loss of $1.98 per share on $149.9 million of revenue, essentially flat 2. Susquehanna, an investment bank, cut its price target from $30 to $25 on October 21 while keeping a Neutral rating 2.
Revenue has fallen three quarters straight, to $149.6 million
Data
| Revenue | |
|---|---|
| Q3 '24 | $194.7M |
| Q2 '25 | — |
| Q3 '25 | $196.8M |
| Q4 '25 | $168.5M |
| Q1 '26 | $150.2M |
| Q2 '26 | $149.6M |
The company also carries a controlling-looking shareholder: Renesas−3.09% — Renesas, down 3.09 percent today Electronics, the Japanese chipmaker that funded Wolfspeed's 2025 exit from Chapter 11, took roughly 37 percent of the company in the restructuring 6. That stake was worth about $292 million when Wolfspeed emerged 3. The Inference examined it on October 17, arguing Wolfspeed's newest wafer deal feeds its rival Infineon 6.
The institutions split the same way the float does
In the most recent quarter, JPMorgan, Two Sigma and BlackRock−1.84% — BlackRock, down 1.84 percent today added heavily to their stakes while Citigroup−2.90% — Citigroup, down 2.90 percent today and Morgan Stanley−2.63% — Morgan Stanley, down 2.63 percent today sold most of theirs 1.
Institutions split the float: three funds added, two liquidated in Q2
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| JPMorgan | 2,254,870 shares |
| Two Sigma | 2,250,563 shares |
| BlackRock | 1,892,480 shares |
| Citigroup | -2,535,728 shares |
| Morgan Stanley | -2,258,710 shares |
Both camps cannot be right about November 4.
One line on the call settles the bet
If AI data-center revenue appears as a disclosed dollar figure with growth, the shorts face a squeeze with more than four days of volume to cover 1. If it stays a talking point, the longs own a story carried by a conditional loan: up to $1.5 billion over 30 years from the U.S 37. Department of War, formerly the Department of Defense, announced October 7 37.
None of it can be drawn yet; the conditions require Wolfspeed to raise $750 million in new equity, and the government would take warrants over up to 7.5 percent of the diluted equity 3. Watch one line on the call: not the loss, but whether AI data-center revenue gets a number and a customer name. That is the test both sides have priced differently.
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