Astera Labs guided revenue up 40%; insiders sold $486 million and bought nothing
The Scorpio switch maker reports on November 3 with revenue guided up 40%. Over six months its officers and directors sold about $486 million of stock and bought none.
Vincent Jiang · 2 min read
Selling below the sale price
Astera Labs+1.18% — Astera Labs, up 1.18 percent today closed Thursday at $257.82, down 11.11%, the worst of the AI names on a Nasdaq that lost 2.6%, its worst day since June as AI spending worries resurfaced 458. The chipmaker now trades below the prices at which two of its directors sold in September. Manuel Alba sold 183,000 shares at $280.13 on September 1, cutting his holding 41.89% 2. Stefan Dyckerhoff sold 8,994 shares at $274.96 the next day, cutting his 73.10% and leaving $909,842 2. Both were pre-arranged 10b5-1 sales 2.
Six months of insider sales, all one-way: $486 million, zero purchases
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Sanjay Gajendra, President and COO | $238.2M |
| Manuel Alba, Director | $132.5M |
| Jitendra Mohan, CEO | $83.6M |
| Stefan Dyckerhoff, Director | $22.2M |
| Philip Mazzara, General Counsel | $5.8M |
| Jack Lazar, Director | $3.6M |
The guide that must not miss
Second-quarter revenue was a record $392.4 million, up 104.5% year on year, and management guided the third quarter to $540-560 million, about 40% higher, as Scorpio X-Series switches enter volume production a quarter early 23. Non-GAAP EPS is guided to $1.16-1.21 from $0.80; gross margin is guided down to about 72% from 73.7% 23.
Eight quarters of sequential revenue growth, then a guided 40% jump
- Revenue
- Estimate
Data
| Revenue | |
|---|---|
| Q2 '24 | $76.9M |
| Q3 '24 | $113.1M |
| Q4 '24 | $141.1M |
| Q1 '25 | $159.4M |
| Q2 '25 | $191.9M |
| Q3 '25 | $230.6M |
| Q4 '25 | $270.6M |
| Q1 '26 | $308.4M |
| Q2 '26 | $392.4M |
| Q3 guide (estimate) | $550M |
Northland downgraded the stock to Market Perform on October 9 on valuation alone, while calling $5 EPS by 2028 achievable 62. Street consensus holds at Moderate Buy, target $344 62.
295 sales, zero buys
Insiders sold in 295 transactions over six months and bought in none, an estimated $486 million: President and COO Sanjay Gajendra $238.2 million, Alba $132.5 million, CEO Jitendra Mohan $83.6 million 1. No source states motive, and none needs to. At 187 times trailing earnings, the price already assumes the ramp lands on schedule and the margin holds 2. The complication is not the selling; it is that the guide and the exits came from the same building within weeks of each other.
The November 3 rule
Revenue near $550 million with gross margin near 72% says the ramp is real and the September sellers were on a plan 36. Below $520 million, or margin below 71.5%, says the multiple has no floor 36.
What happens next
ALABDoes revenue land near $550 million with gross margin near 72%, or below the $520 million threshold that would suggest the multiple has no floor?
The case for
Revenue guided to $540-560 million, about 40% above a record $392.4 million quarter that was up 104.5% year on year
The case against
$486 million of insider sales across 295 transactions with zero purchases, including the CEO and president
- Mon Nov 3Astera Labs reports third-quarter results.
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