Lockheed Martin answers Mach Industries' 1,000-mile missile with a ramjet and a $300 million production line
The Army's five-way fly-off for a 1,000 km HIMARS missile now pits the largest US weapons maker's ramjet and new factory line against a startup valued at $3.7 billion that has not disclosed a production order.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
Lockheed Martin−1.18% — Lockheed Martin, down 1.18 percent today put its card down on October 26 for the Army's Precision Strike Missile Increment 4: a ramjet engine built with L3Harris−0.78% — L3Harris, down 0.78 percent today that the company says roughly doubles the current missile's range, past 1,000 kilometres, fired from a HIMARS launcher at moving warships and relocatable ground targets 1. Lockheed also says it has spent more than $300 million with partners on the propulsion behind that range and is running a $300 million automated production line for airframe and engine parts, claims carried so far by one outlet 12.
The Army is shopping twice
Five names hold prototype agreements. On September 29 the Army awarded Other Transaction Authority deals to Lockheed, Anduril$123.86B — Anduril, private, latest valuation $123.86B, Castelion~$1B — Castelion, private, latest valuation ~$1B, RTX and Mach Industries~$570M — Mach Industries, private, latest valuation ~$570M, with a competitive fly-off and down-select planned for fiscal 2027 9. Separately, on October 14 it posted a sources-sought notice asking who else can manufacture the existing Increment 1 missile, responses due October 30 3.
Lockheed holds that line under a March 2025 agreement worth up to $4.9 billion, starting with 400 missiles 3. Lt. Gen. Frank Lozano, the Army's acquisition executive for fires, said going down to one vendor creates "a choke point and a manufacturing constraint," and he wants multiple solutions in production 4.
The program runs from $300 million of Lockheed's own propulsion spend to a $4.9 billion contract ceiling
Data
| Dollars, billions | |
|---|---|
| Propulsion spend | $0.3B |
| Production line | $0.3B |
| Oct Army award | $1.2B |
| Inc 1 contract | $4.9B |
Mach raised $900 million on prototypes, not orders
Mach Industries, a Huntington Beach startup founded by 22-year-old Ethan Thornton, raised a $600 million Series C extension on September 10 at a $3.7 billion valuation, double its June figure, bringing the round to $900 million 5. Its Increment 4 entry is Pike, a missile that launches on a rocket and then flies on a jet engine, up to 1,000 miles by the company's account 67.
Thornton's pitch: long-range weapons "built in numbers and fielded fast" 6. What is not disclosed anywhere: a production order. Tech CEO Daily's verdict on Mach, Anduril and Shield AI$13.77B — Shield AI, private, latest valuation $13.77B is that all three need production orders to grow into their valuations 5.
Mach's valuation doubled twice in 15 months, on prototypes rather than production orders
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Jun 2025 | $0.47B |
| Jun 2026 | $1.8B |
| Sep 2026 | $3.7B |
The Army will keep near-misses alive
Prototype selection is not production. Flight tests in 2027 and 2028 decide Increment 4 1, and Lozano said the Army is willing to "help sustain" contenders that merely get close into early and even full-rate production 4. Mach's countermove is personnel: Zach Kirkman, General Motors'+1.89% — General Motors, up 1.89 percent today deputy chief financial officer, became Mach's CFO on October 21 to lead capital markets and finance as the company scales production 8.
A startup raised to $3.7 billion now has a CFO hired for its next phase before its first disclosed order book.
The 2027 down-select is the tell
The fiscal 2027 fly-off decides the 1,000 km slot, and the Increment 1 second-source decision decides who else builds today's missile 39. The single metric to watch: whether the Army's next munitions award names Mach for production, or whether the $900 million round closes still buying prototypes 39.
The Inference reported on October 19 that Mach unveiled Pike while the Army paid Lockheed $1.2 billion for the current missile; since then the contest has turned industrial on both sides.
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