Morgan Stanley cut its SpaceX borrowing forecast to $390 billion; KeyBanc sees $475 billion of capex
Morgan Stanley pulled SpaceX's cash-flow break-even forward four years to 2031 and cut its borrowing forecast by $280 billion. KeyBanc counts $475 billion of capital still needed through 2028, and a Democratic sweep just put the buildout's demand side in doubt.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
The ballot caught the buildout
SpaceX−4.15% — SpaceX, down 4.15 percent today fell 5.24% to $133.91 in overnight trading on November 3 1, and CNBC's tape had it down more than 6% at the worst 2. Democrats took the House and the Senate, and in Texas, projected winner Gina Hinojosa has pledged an immediate moratorium on data centers 2. Wells Fargo+2.22% — Wells Fargo, up 2.22 percent today puts about 27% of US data-center gigawatts in Texas 2, the state Musk moved SpaceX's headquarters to. The stock's whole bull case is compute, and compute just met politics.
Jonas nearly doubles the model
Four months after initiating on the stock, Morgan Stanley+4.23% — Morgan Stanley, up 4.23 percent today analyst Adam Jonas has nearly doubled his numbers: 2027 revenue up 93% to $175 billion, 2028 up 84% to $289 billion, operating income up 72% to $119 billion 1. Free-cash-flow break-even moves to 2031 from 2035, and projected borrowing drops by roughly $280 billion, to $390 billion through 2031 1.
At $109 billion of 2028 adjusted earnings and a $1.91 trillion market cap, that is 17.6 times earnings, a notch under the S&P 500's 17.7 1. The bank also took SpaceX public and collected record wealth revenue on the deal 1.
The other ledger is capex
Third-quarter revenue was $14.6 billion, up 161%, with the Super Intelligence segment at $7.56 billion 3. Capital spending was $19.6 billion in the same quarter, and CFO Bret Johnsen guided the fourth quarter to $35 billion to $40 billion 3. That is $48.1 billion spent in nine months, against $38.8 billion of debt and finance leases at September 30, before the $40 billion GPU debt closed 6. KeyBanc analyst Michael Leshock models $473 billion of capex in 2027 and $475 billion of additional capital through 2028 1.
Capex has outrun revenue in five of six reported quarters
The buildout sets the pace: capex topped revenue in five of six quarters
- Revenue
- Capex
Data
| Revenue | Capex | |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 '25 | $4.07B | $4.14B |
| Q2 '25 | $4.07B | $2.83B |
| Q3 '25 | $5.58B | $6.88B |
| Q4 '25 | — | — |
| Q1 '26 | $4.69B | $10.11B |
| Q2 '26 | $7.81B | $18.37B |
| Q3 '26 | $14.58B | $19.59B |
Debt has nearly tripled since the end of 2024
Data
| Debt and finance leases | |
|---|---|
| Q4 '24 | $13.79B |
| Q1 '25 | — |
| Q2 '25 | — |
| Q3 '25 | — |
| Q4 '25 | $22.9B |
| Q1 '26 | $30.27B |
| Q2 '26 | $39.36B |
| Q3 '26 | $38.84B |
Even the bulls count in trillions
The bears hold documents too. Google's head of data-center energy, Amanda Peterson Corio, puts space data centers at up to 100 times the cost of ground ones; short seller Jim Chanos reads that as about $5 trillion per gigawatt and says compute rents accrue to chipmakers like NVIDIA−3.00% — NVIDIA, down 3.00 percent today, with landlords as "financial conduits" 4.
Bill Ackman, who founded Pershing Square, calls the buildout sustainable and hyperscaler credit solid, but says Musk "might have to borrow a trillion dollars", with companies "competing at sovereign levels" 5. Musk's own figures straddle the camps: $500 billion to $1 trillion of annual recurring revenue by end-2027, against his CFO's $33 billion to $37 billion revenue guide for Q1 2027 3.
What settles it
The tell is capex against the borrowing line. If fourth-quarter spending lands in Johnsen's range and 2027 tracks toward KeyBanc's $473 billion, then $390 billion through 2031 will not cover it 248. Watch the Texas moratorium's first moves 2, and Starship Flight 15, static-fired on October 29 and expected to fly this month attempting to catch both booster and ship 48. The two camps do not disagree about SpaceX's future; they disagree about who pays for it.
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