Riot signed a $28 billion, 15-year Texas lease as Cipher's odds of signing one were halved after the vote
Democrat Gina Hinojosa won Texas on a pledge to pause new data centers until the legislature acts. Within hours, KBW had halved Cipher's lease odds while Riot signed a $28 billion lease in the same state.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
Texas voted, and the landlord trade split
Democrat Gina Hinojosa won the Texas governor's race on Tuesday on a pledge to "stop the data center takeover": a moratorium on new data centers until the legislature passes community protections, plus an end to their tax incentives 1. Outgoing Governor Greg Abbott had already frozen environmental permits in September, with the grid-connection queue near 474 gigawatts 5.
The tape sorted the sector in one session
The split came within hours. Hut 8−21.56% — Hut 8, down 21.56 percent today fell 22.3%, Cipher Mining−20.79% — Cipher Mining, down 20.79 percent today 18.8%, CleanSpark−14.60% — CleanSpark, down 14.60 percent today 13.7% and Galaxy 11.8%, while Riot Platforms+12.66% — Riot Platforms, up 12.66 percent today rose 15.3% 27. Riot had signed, before the open, a 15-year lease of its entire 910-megawatt Corsicana campus to an unnamed frontier AI lab: about $28 billion over the term, roughly $1.8 billion a year of rent at an estimated 99% margin, and no equity issuance expected 3.
Only Riot, holding a signed lease, rose on the day
Riot rose 15.3% on its signed lease; unleased Texas pipelines fell up to 22.3%
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Hut 8 | -22.3% |
| Cipher Mining | -18.78% |
| CleanSpark | -13.68% |
| Galaxy | -11.76% |
| IREN | -8.89% |
| TeraWulf | -4.59% |
| MARA | -2.66% |
| Riot Platforms | 15.3% |
One bank halved the odds before lunch
KBW downgraded Cipher and CleanSpark to Market Perform, halved its odds of Cipher signing the Reveille lease within 12 months to 50% from 100%, and cut CleanSpark's Sealy and Brazoria to 50% from 65%; Riot's rating went under review 4. Two days earlier the same desk had warned of a "lease catalyst drought" 9.
Morgan Stanley+3.70% — Morgan Stanley, up 3.70 percent today named Cipher, MARA and Galaxy the most Texas-exposed, noting a governor can pause projects by executive order and appoint the grid regulators whose terms open in 2027 5. Cantor Fitzgerald now expects Cipher's next lease to be signed outside Texas 6.
KBW halved its Texas lease odds overnight
Cipher's Reveille odds fell 100% to 50%; Sealy and Brazoria 65% to 50%
- Before the election
- KBW on November 4
Data
| Before the election | KBW on November 4 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cipher's Reveille lease | 100% | 50% | -50.0% |
| CleanSpark's Sealy and Brazoria | 65% | 50% | -23.1% |
The buyers' case: contracted megawatts
Rosenblatt's Chris Brendler called the result "a sort by MW quality rather than a reason to sell the group" 7. His protection test is contracted revenue: $16.6 billion of Cipher's sits outside Batch Zero, the review tranche now separating exposed sites from protected ones, and his clear favorite is TeraWulf−5.07% — TeraWulf, down 5.07 percent today, whose 401-megawatt Kentucky campus for the AI lab Anthropic$350B — Anthropic, private, latest valuation $350B already carries state approval 7. TeraWulf added its own receipt that morning, with Google agreeing to backstop the project debt behind the roughly $19 billion Anthropic leases 8.
The catch in the split
Riot's lease is in Texas too. Its phases deliver through July 2028, all under the new governor, and Morgan Stanley flags even Riot's proposed projects for the same policy risk 35. The market did not sell Texas; it sold the Texas nobody had signed for.
The tell is a Texas lease under the new governor
Hinojosa takes office in January as the 90th Legislature convenes: a pause can come by executive order, while repealing the sales-tax exemption needs lawmakers 45. December brings the first rulings on the big-load queue, IREN−10.83% — IREN, down 10.83 percent today reports Thursday and MARA on Monday 26. The tell is whether any Texas lease prints under the new governor, and Riot's $28 billion says the labs still want the power 26.
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