Nebius says customers prepay for all new capacity, but $4.04 billion of receivables is uncollected

A 16% selloff, answered with a billing term

Arkady Volozh opened Nebius's▼−12.27% — Nebius, down 12.27 percent today earnings call with the question that had just knocked 16% off his stock: "How fast can AI build-out happen, and who will pay for it?" ¹⁵ The November 12 report had lifted 2026 capex guidance to about $27 billion↗ and set 2027 spending at $40–45 billion, where the FactSet▲+0.30% — FactSet, up 0.30 percent today consensus sat at $28.77 billion ¹. His answer on who pays: prepayments on new contracts "now cover more than 100% of the capital needed to bring this contracted capacity online," up from 50–60% last quarter ¹. The Inference covered the numbers; the funding answer is what is new since.

Customers are paying before the machines arrive

The plan leans on cash arriving ahead of the steel. Nebius expects $10 billion of committed prepayments this year and $17–20 billion in 2027, and its shareholder letter↗ says prepayments plus asset-backed loans on investment-grade contracts should fund 75–85% of 2027 capex ¹³⁴. Third-quarter deals carried annual contract value above $25 million per megawatt, up from $20–25 million, with payback shortened to one year and seven months ¹². Customers have signed more than $12 billion of new contracts since the quarter began, on top of commitments above $40 billion led by Microsoft▼−0.28% — Microsoft, down 0.28 percent today at up to $19.4 billion ²³.

The cash has not landed

The third-quarter tape is the counterweight. Operating cash flow, above $2 billion a quarter in the first half, flipped to negative $273 million against $465.8 million of adjusted EBITDA, its first negative quarter in a year ¹⁹.

Receivables hit $4.04 billion on September 30, up $3.76 billion in one quarter and nearly four times the period's $980.8 million of revenue, while deferred revenue rose $3.43 billion ¹.

Delivery is slipping too: colocation sites including New Jersey are behind schedule, pushing planned revenue into 2027 and trimming the 2026 revenue guide to $3.0–3.2 billion↗ ¹²⁵. CFO Dado Alonso's answer: "We have no doubt that this capacity will be sold. Clients are looking for capacity already for 2028" ⁵.

CoreWeave made the same argument two days earlier

CoreWeave▼−8.55% — CoreWeave, down 8.55 percent today (CRWV), the other big listed neocloud, as the GPU-rental firms are known, gave the same answer on November 10 ⁶⁷. "We will not use the unsecured debt market to fund our business at current yields, nor do we need to," CEO Michael Intrator said, alongside about $9 billion of customer prepayments expected over three months↗ ⁶⁷.

Bond investors are the holdouts: some CoreWeave yields traded above 15% before the print, on $46.9 billion of debt ⁶⁷. Jasper Zhang, CEO of GPU marketplace Hyperbolic, says the market is punishing delivery, execution and leverage, not GPU demand ⁸. Nebius carries $14.19 billion of debt excluding leases against $7.43 billion of cash ¹.

December's bank statement decides it

Atreides Management's Gavin Baker set the scoreboard on November 10: when customers prepay, "OCF to EBITDA is the most important metric," and a company collecting up front should run cash ahead of earnings ¹. If the $4.04 billion of receivables clears by December 31, fourth-quarter operating cash flow swings back above EBITDA, right where the bulls need it ¹. The 75–85% answer is only as good as December's bank statement ¹.