Netflix at a two-year low of $61.39: $12 billion of cash against fewer app opens

The market has started calling Netflix a declining business

Netflix▲+0.32% — Netflix, up 0.32 percent today shares closed at $61.39 on October 29, a two-year low, and are down about 33% this year↗ ¹. The fresh blow came from a Bloomberg report on October 25↗ that members open the app on fewer days a month than they did a couple of years ago, a usage metric Netflix tracks as qualified play days; the same reporting noted the company had fired both of its content chiefs and cut 6% of staff ².

The story pulled nearly 18,000 upvotes on r/movies and thousands more on r/entertainment within days ³⁴. Wolfe Research downgraded the stock the same week, arguing engagement is not responding to higher investment ⁵.

The facts both camps accept

Total viewing rose a couple of percentage points in the first half of 2026 only because Netflix added members; each member is watching less ². Apptopia found↗ the share of US subscribers who did not open the app rose 16.6% year over year in the third quarter ⁸.

Nielsen's Gauge put YouTube▼−1.10% — YouTube, down 1.10 percent today at a record 15.8% of US television time in August, with Netflix at 7.7% ⁸. Yet churn has held steady near 2%, the best in the industry by Antenna's count, and no cancellation wave followed ². Subscribers are paying, not watching.

The bull exhibit is cash, not clicks

Free cash flow went from a $130 million burn in 2021 to $9.5 billion in 2025, and management expects about $12 billion this year ⁶. That is Joe Carlson's case: Netflix was "failing" the first two times while burning or flat on cash, and now it prints money ⁶.

Jason Calacanis, the early Uber investor, called it "a screaming buy" on October 27↗, bought 3,000 shares at $63 and set a $90 twelve-month target, 43% above his cost ⁶. At 17x forward earnings against a 33x five-year average, with the Street's average target at $89 ⁶, Morningstar also sees the lower valuation as an opening for longer-horizon investors ¹.

The bear case hides inside the bull case's own numbers

Revenue growth slowed from 17.6% in the fourth quarter of 2025 to 11.8% in the third, and a fourth-quarter guide of 11.5% would make four straight slowdowns ⁶. Growth now comes from price increases and advertising rather than watch time ⁵, and Netflix cut its 2026 ad forecast to $2.7 billion, as our October 20 coverage of the job cuts and ad shortfall reported ⁹.

Content cash payments rose 18.5% in nine months, nearly twice the 9.5% rise in content amortization ⁶, so the cash the bulls cite is being bid for content. Calacanis's own cure, up to $50 million in stock for elite directors, adds to that bill ⁶.

Two dates set the verdict

FIFA's bid deadline↗ for US rights to the 2030 World Cup, with a 2034 option, is November 19, with a winner named by year-end; Netflix already holds the tournament's rights in Spain and Andorra and the Women's World Cup in the US and Canada for 2027 and 2031 ⁷. The bid is the live test of whether sports spending hedges the engagement slide or spends into it.

If app opens recover and January's 2027 guidance holds double-digit growth with wider margins, the buy camp's multiple math works from here. If qualified play days keep falling, the estimates behind that 17x fall with them, and the $63 buyer's 43% upside reprices with them. The deep dive below has the full record.