SiTime tripled revenue to $298.7 million and the market still cut it 60%
The chipmaker whose silicon clocks keep AI data centers synchronized posted the strongest quarter of the AI trade and still lost 60 percent of its value from September [3]. Friday's 17 percent snapback now has to prove itself before a 3-for-1 split resets every price on the chart.
Vincent Jiangthree-minute read
The best quarter in the AI trade got sold at the open
After the close on Wednesday November 4, SiTime+17.81% — SiTime, up 17.81 percent today reported revenue of $298.7 million against $83.6 million a year earlier, adjusted earnings of $4.01 a share against a $3.63 consensus, and revenue above the $292.06 million estimate 12. The Santa Clara company builds the precision-timing chips, oscillators and clocks, that keep AI data-center systems synchronized 1. The stock fell 10.7 percent after hours anyway, then got swept into a broad semiconductor sell-off 3.
Six weeks of selling, estimates that never left
By Thursday's close the stock sat at $355, about 60 percent below its September peak of $901.81 3. The street's response was to trim targets and keep every rating: Needham to $600 from $900, Stifel−0.70% — Stifel, down 0.70 percent today to $750, Morgan Stanley−0.82% — Morgan Stanley, down 0.82 percent today to $640, UBS to $650, all Buy 3.
On Friday, Seaport analyst Jay Goldberg upgraded to Buy at $425, arguing the AI infrastructure buildout remains intact and that the indiscriminate sell-off made an attractive entry, while Rosenblatt named SiTime its top semiconductor pick at $900, raised from $750 42. The stock closed at $416.92, up 17.4 percent 3. Even after the cuts, the average target near $767 sits about 84 percent above the price 3.
A third of the record quarter was bought, not grown
The 257 percent headline is not an organic rate 5. It was the first full quarter combining SiTime with Renesas's−5.74% — Renesas, down 5.74 percent today timing products division, an acquisition closed July 1 5. That acquired unit, TPD, contributed $86.3 million of the $298.7 million, up 67 percent, while core SiTime excluding TPD grew 154 percent to $212.4 million 6.
The adjusted $4.01 also leans hard on adjustments: GAAP diluted EPS was $0.14, GAAP gross margin was 51.6 percent against 70.7 percent adjusted, and the deal left $1.3 billion of convertible notes on the balance sheet 1.
The receipts: revenue tripled in four quarters
Revenue tripled in four quarters and the guide calls for another record
Q3 revenue of $298.7M is up 257% year over year; the guide runs $331M to $341M
- Revenue
- Estimate
Data
| Revenue | |
|---|---|
| Q3 '25 | $83.57M |
| Q4 '25 | $113.29M |
| Q1 '26 | $113.57M |
| Q2 '26 | $157.43M |
| Q3 '26 | $298.67M |
| Q4 guide (estimate) | $336M ($331–341M) |
Management guided the December quarter to $331 to $341 million of revenue, about 70 percent gross margin and roughly $4.76 adjusted EPS at the midpoint 6. Chief executive Rajesh Vashist called the growth broad-based, well beyond any single market, and put the annualized revenue run-rate above $1 billion 1. Against that grid, even the trimmed targets sit far above a $416.92 tape 1.
Every price target stayed above Friday's close, even after Thursday's cuts
Average target near $767 sits 84% above a $416.92 tape
- Estimate
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Rosenblatt (estimate) | $900 |
| Stifel (estimate) | $750 |
| UBS (estimate) | $650 |
| Morgan Stanley (estimate) | $640 |
| Needham (estimate) | $600 |
| Seaport (estimate) | $425 |
The bear case has numbers too
Q3 operating cash flow was a $6.6 million outflow, and wafer supply constraints run through 2027 6. The chart is still broken: the price sits far below its 50-day average near $562 and its 200-day near $548, the 14-day RSI reads about 39 3.
A sustained close above $425 to $450 is what would confirm a durable low, while losing the mid-$340s extends the sell-off 3. Friday's thrust is the first strong counter-trend session in weeks, encouraging, not yet confirmation 3.
December 7 rewrites the chart
SiTime also declared a 3-for-1 split: record date December 3, two extra shares per share distributed after the close on December 4, split-adjusted trading from December 7 1. Some market reports put the distribution after December 6; the company's own release says 4 13.
The Inference previewed this print on October 22 as a test of a guided doubling, with street targets from $370 to $900 previewed this print on October 22. The next scheduled reading is the Q4 report. Watch one thing after the split: whether the stock holds the reclaimed low or hands the mid-$300s back. The estimates never left the stock. Only the multiple moved.
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