Constellation sold Google 20 years of nuclear power, and still trades 38% below its high
Constellation put up more than $4.3 billion to sell two decades of nuclear output to Google and Amazon, and the stock still trades 38% below its high. The market priced it like a leveraged AI landlord; the contracts, and a November 9 earnings print, say otherwise.
Vincent Jiang · 4 min read
Constellation+0.47% — Constellation, up 0.47 percent today sold 20 years of nuclear power to Google and 20 more to Amazon+0.34% — Amazon, up 0.34 percent today in one week, then closed on October 23 at $253, down 30.5% for the year and 38% below its $406.04 high 1. The October repricing of AI power names cut every stock in the trade, from leveraged data-center landlords to a utility holding contracts signed by Alphabet−0.31% — Alphabet, down 0.31 percent today and Amazon.
The difference between those two groups is the whole argument, and two dates will referee it: a Nuclear Regulatory Commission inspection already open at the Dresden plant, and third-quarter earnings on November 9 1 4.
Two contracts, one week, $7 billion of new spend
On October 6 Constellation and Google announced a 20-year power purchase agreement, a PPA, meaning a fixed long-term contract to buy electricity at agreed terms 5. Google's purchase supports 890 megawatts of new nuclear capacity from uprates, upgrades to turbines, steam generators and control systems that squeeze more output from 11 reactors already running 5.
A separate 15-year deal covers another 2,700 megawatts from the existing fleet 5. Constellation, not Google, puts up the more than $4.3 billion of investment behind the uprates, roughly $4.8 million per megawatt, with the first new megawatts due in 2028 and all 890 online by the end of 2032 1 5. A week earlier, Amazon signed a 20-year PPA for 690 megawatts at the Calvert Cliffs plant in Maryland, including a roughly 190-megawatt uprate due between 2030 and 2032, backed by more than $3 billion of Constellation investment 1 2.
Google's package runs to 3,590 MW; Amazon's Calvert Cliffs deal adds 690 MW
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Google uprates, Oct 6 | 890 MW |
| Google PJM supply, 15-yr | 2,700 MW |
| Amazon Calvert Cliffs, Sept 30 | 690 MW |
| Amazon uprate within it | 190 MW |
| Walmart Dresden uprate, June | 30 MW |
Uprates skip the queue
Uprates are the fastest path to new nuclear megawatts: they reuse existing sites, licenses and grid connections, so they avoid the multi-year timelines and interconnection bottlenecks of building from scratch 1 5. Google and Amazon together now back about 1,080 megawatts of planned Constellation uprates under long-term contracts, converting capital spending into two-decade contracted revenue from two of the strongest balance sheets in technology 1.
Walmart+0.57% — Walmart, up 0.57 percent today holds a smaller slice, a 176-megawatt PPA at Dresden signed in June that includes 30 megawatts of uprate capacity 3. The market pays for this predictability elsewhere: Vistra+2.03% — Vistra, up 2.03 percent today, Constellation's closest peer, runs the same playbook with 433 megawatts of Meta−0.06% — Meta, down 0.06 percent today-backed uprates and a conditional federal loan offer of up to $4.2 billion 1.
The inspection, and the number the contracts assume
On October 14 the NRC, the federal nuclear regulator, opened a special inspection at the two-unit Dresden station in Morris, Illinois, after staff found a corroded battery connection that broke during maintenance; the battery backs equipment used to shut down the reactor 4. The regulator said the issue did not affect public health and safety.
Two inspectors will examine why routine checks missed the damage and whether other plants face the same problem 4. The timing matters because uprate economics assume the fleet keeps running near the 93.0% capacity factor Constellation posted in the second quarter, already down from 94.8% a year earlier 1.
The fear trade has the wrong defendant
The sector-wide selloff has a real anchor, but not in Baltimore. Core Scientific+5.69% — Core Scientific, up 5.69 percent today, a bitcoin miner renting data-center capacity to AI clouds, lost 24% in a month after Jefferies+2.02% — Jefferies, up 2.02 percent today cut its target from $37 to $16; it carries about $7.7 billion of debt against $1.8 billion of cash and negative equity 6.
Constellation carries roughly 3.0 times net debt to EBITDA, its buyers are Alphabet and Amazon rather than leveraged renters, and Wall Street's average target sits at $338, about 33% above the last close 1 4. Morgan Stanley+2.56% — Morgan Stanley, up 2.56 percent today raised its target to $378 on October 21, citing the expansion pipeline 2. A stock falling with the sector while signing contracts the sector could not get is a separation the next print can confirm or deny.
Wall Street's targets sit 33% or more above the $253 close
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Last close, Oct 23 | $253 |
| Street average target | $338 |
| Morgan Stanley target | $378 |
| 52-week high | $406.04 |
What November 9 decides
Third-quarter results land on November 9, the first report since both deals 1 7. Three lines settle the argument: whether 2026 adjusted operating EPS guidance of $11.50 to $12.50 holds, whether nuclear capacity factors recover toward the mid-90s, and what management says about Dresden 1. Until then, the market has priced a borrower's risk onto Alphabet's paper 1 6.
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