Fermi's $6.5 billion lease comes due Friday, and the only news this week was a rerun
The TensorWave lease closes, extends or dies on October 31. One day out there is no closing, no financing, and the one company story circulating this week was a year-old gas press release.
Vincent Jiang · 4 min read
On Friday the lease closes, extends or dies
The only revenue contract Fermi Inc.−9.27% — Fermi Inc., down 9.27 percent today has ever signed comes due tomorrow. On August 10, TensorWave, an AI cloud that runs only on AMD−11.68% — AMD, down 11.68 percent today Instinct GPUs, agreed to lease 222 megawatts at Project Matador, Fermi's behind-the-meter private-grid campus in Carson County, Texas: about $6.5 billion of contracted revenue over a 15-year initial term, rent up 2.5% a year, phased delivery from late 2027 into early 2028 1.
The lease does not close on a signature. Its conditions include executed guaranties, a service-level agreement and project-level financing adequate to pay for construction 6, and either party can terminate if the conditions are not met 1. The parties already pushed closing once, from September 30 to October 31 1. The Inference reported on October 28 that no closing, second extension or guaranty was on the record 1, and nothing new has appeared since: the company's own newsroom lists no release after October 19 7.
The tape is not waiting. Fermi closed at $2.86 on October 29, down 5.30%, and traded at $2.79 in Thursday pre-market 4, against a 52-week high of $30.02 2.
From $30.02 to $2.86 inside a year
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| 52-week high | $30.02 |
| Oct 29 close | $2.86 |
| 1-year low | $2.44 |
The week's only company news was a rerun
The one Fermi story circulating this week was a gas-supply deal, Energy Transfer delivering firm natural gas to the campus near Amarillo. The page carrying it is dated October 16, 2025, and was merely updated October 30, 2026: a year-old press release walking around in today's news cycle 5. Fermi's own newsroom lists nothing new since October 19 7. A company one day from its first $6.5 billion closing had nothing new to say 7.
Insiders sold $15.6 million; the funds' buying is small
Insiders sold 4,467,949 shares worth $15.6 million in the last three months 2. Each trade shows up on a Form 4, the SEC form insiders must file to report their own trades 3. Co-founder and 10% holder Toby Neugebauer sold 2,750,000 shares on October 13 at an average $3.73 for $10.26 million 2, then 420,749 more on October 20 for about $1.3 million 3.
Into that slide the company launched $350 million of convertible senior notes due 2031 on October 22, and the shares fell more than 18% after hours 1. No pricing announcement is on the record since the October 22 launch 17. The phase-one financing had not been raised as of October 20 1, and AMD's October 13 credit support starts only after construction is complete and rent begins on the final delivery phase. It strengthens the credit of financing that does not yet exist; it is not cash in hand today 6.
The bulls' buying is small and the sellers' stake is not
Mad River Investors added 466,700 shares in the third quarter, a 2,828.5% increase to 483,200 shares 2. Alyeska Investment Group grew its stake 82.4%, and BlackRock−2.68% — BlackRock, down 2.68 percent today opened a $38.5 million position in the second quarter 2. The consensus rating is Moderate Buy with an average price target of $16.86 2, and Cantor Fitzgerald still rates the stock overweight after cutting its target to $8 on October 16 2.
The street's average target sits six times above the tape
Data
| Dollars per share | |
|---|---|
| Consensus average target | $16.86 |
| Cantor target | $8 |
| Oct 29 close | $2.86 |
$16.86 is the street's average target. $2.79 is the tape 24. Between them sit the counterweights. The funds' buying comes from filings covering quarters already past, and it is small: Mad River's entire stake is 0.08% of the company 2. Neugebauer, by contrast, still holds 91,609,659 shares 2 and kept selling into the weakness.
The bulls' physical evidence is real: three GE Vernova−3.55% — GE Vernova, down 3.55 percent today 6B gas turbines on site since October 15 7, and TensorWave holds more than 2 gigawatts of secured capacity, with AMD among the investors in its $350 million Series B 1. The turbines show construction is moving, but construction does not satisfy the closing conditions. The executed guaranty and the secured project financing do, and neither is on the record 67.
What decides it
Friday, October 31: closing, second extension or walk, and either side holds the walking right 1. Then November 12, the earnings call that must account for a quarter in which the only signed lease had not closed 1. Three tells settle the next read: a closing 8-K, the form a company files for material events like a lease closing; a coupon on the notes; and a name on the guaranty 1.
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