RBC cuts Mobileye to $5 against an $11 consensus before its October 29 report, with 20.6% of the float short
Mobileye reports on October 29 with a fifth of its float sold short, its founder on his way out, and RBC's $5 target set against an $11 consensus. The Volkswagen relationship decides the argument, and no company has confirmed what the footage suggests.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
The charge: Volkswagen, by name
Footage posted on October 18 shows a van of Volkswagen's MOIA ride-hailing unit at a rest stop on Germany's A8 motorway, a Wayve logo on its autonomous kit, and self-driving watchers read it as Volkswagen moving its robotaxi software from Mobileye−1.50% — Mobileye, down 1.50 percent today to the London startup 12. No company involved has confirmed a switch.
Three days later, RBC Capital Markets cut Mobileye, the Intel−8.85% — Intel, down 8.85 percent today-controlled Israeli maker of driver-assistance chips and software, to Underperform from Sector Perform and lowered its target to $5 from $7 3. Automakers are folding driver assistance into central computers from the chipmakers Nvidia−4.62% — Nvidia, down 4.62 percent today and Qualcomm−3.17% — Qualcomm, down 3.17 percent today, advanced-product wins "have failed to materialize", and Volkswagen, which carries the premium line, "could move away", RBC wrote 3. The shares fell 4% to $7.04 in premarket trading 3.
The evidence: a fifth of the float sold short
Mobileye reports third-quarter results before the open on October 29, with consensus at $0.1013 a share on $476.78 million of revenue 4. Shorts hold 20.6% of the free float, up more than 20% in a month, 6.5 days to cover 5. Directors Frank Yeary and Safroadu Yeboah-Amankwah paid $7.98 and $8.46 in open-market buys in July and August, as The Inference reported on October 15; the stock opened Thursday at $7.02, fifty-five cents above its 52-week low 4. Intel owns about 77% of the shares 6.
RBC's $5 is the only Mobileye target below the $7.02 share price
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| RBC | $5 |
| UBS | $7.5 |
| Goldman Sachs | $8 |
| Mizuho | $8 |
| Barclays | $9 |
| Morgan Stanley | $9 |
| Citi | $11 |
| Evercore ISI | $11 |
| Consensus | $11.08 |
The defense: $24.5 billion of pipeline
The bulls start with the second quarter: adjusted earnings of $0.19 beat by $0.13 on $508 million of revenue, and full-year adjusted operating income guidance rose to $365 million to $425 million from $185 million to $235 million 47. Add a $24.5 billion eight-year revenue pipeline, Stellantis design wins, earnings revisions ranked in the 98th percentile, and a planned United States robotaxi fleet of its own from 2027 58. Citigroup−1.12% — Citigroup, down 1.12 percent today started coverage at Buy with an $11 target on October 16, and the 23-analyst consensus of $11.08 implies roughly 56% upside 45.
The prosecution: the founder has already gone
The bears answer that SuperVision volumes with Porsche and Audi slipped to late 2027, that returns on capital are deeply negative, and that the EyeQ chip is exactly what a central Nvidia or Qualcomm computer replaces 35. Amnon Shashua, with 27 years building the company and a $15.3 billion sale to Intel in 2017 behind him, told the board on July 18 he would step down 67.
Days before the print he unveiled doubleAI, a $200 million Series A co-led by Lightspeed and Bessemer with Nvidia participating, valued above $1 billion 9. Nvidia stands on both sides of this argument: the processor RBC says will commoditize Mobileye, and the money behind its founder's next company.
Eight quarters of revenue pinned near half a billion dollars
- Revenue
- Estimate
Data
| Revenue | |
|---|---|
| Q3 '24 | $486M |
| Q4 '24 | $490M |
| Q1 '25 | $438M |
| Q2 '25 | $506M |
| Q3 '25 | $504M |
| Q4 '25 | $446M |
| Q1 '26 | $558M |
| Q2 '26 | $508M |
| Q3 '26E (estimate) | $477M |
The verdict watch: October 29, 8 a.m.
The footage settles nothing yet: MOIA's ID. Buzz vans testing in Los Angeles still run Mobileye software 8. Wayve, for its part, carries production agreements with Mercedes-Benz, Nissan and Stellantis 11. Second-half SuperVision shipment guidance is the number to watch on the call. On Volkswagen's intentions, only Volkswagen can speak.
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