S&P priced Meta's $15 billion notes at 220 basis points, nearly twice April's, amid AI debt it cannot see
S&P stamped Meta's new AA- notes days after warning that $71 billion of projected cash deficits lie ahead, while its own infrastructure chief says the AI debt behind the buildout exceeds what the agency can see. The unrated layer beneath the letters, Jane Street's $19 billion of compute commitments, has already cracked first.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
Mark Habib, the S&P Global+3.60% — S&P Global, up 3.60 percent today analyst who leads coverage of digital infrastructure, told Reuters on October 19 that Big Tech likely carries more AI-linked debt than anyone can count 1. "It is safe to assume that there is more out there that we are not seeing," he said, pointing to data-center projects and AI startups financed through special-purpose vehicles, leases and guarantees that fall outside his agency's rating coverage 1.
Four days later, on October 30, his own agency cut its outlook on Meta+3.00% — Meta, up 3.00 percent today to negative on projected cash deficits of $39 billion in 2026 and $71 billion in 2027 2.
The letter sold itself this week
That is the letter bond buyers were reading. On Tuesday Meta priced $15 billion of dollar notes in five tranches against $58 billion of orders, with the 30-year tranche yielding 7.5%, a spread of 220 basis points 8.
In April the same maturity cost 6.30% at a spread of 132 points, and last October it went at 98 points; the price of a Meta guarantee has roughly doubled in six months even as demand held at 3.9 times oversubscribed 8. The five tranches carry coupons from 5.85% in 2031 to 7.5% in 2056 8.
A first euro bond, stamped AA-
Meta's first euro bonds, six tranches from just over four to just over 38 years, launched Wednesday with initial talk of 140 to 370 points over mid-swaps 9. S&P stamped the notes AA-, on a negative outlook; Moody's+5.26% — Moody's, up 5.26 percent today said Aa3 8. The same Monday, S&P rated Equinix's+1.96% — Equinix, up 1.96 percent today new paper BBB+ while projecting its adjusted leverage rising from about 4.0x toward 5x, against a 6.5x downgrade trigger 4. Alphabet+4.23% — Alphabet, up 4.23 percent today sold €6 billion and Oracle+0.11% — Oracle, up 0.11 percent today sought $10 billion that day 3.
The price of a Meta guarantee more than doubled in six months
Meta's 30-year spread more than doubled in six months, from 132 to 220 basis points
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Oct 2025 sale | 98 |
| Apr 2026 sale | 132 |
| This week | 220 |
The layer nobody rates cracked first
Habib's admission covers the other half of the market: the unrated layer beneath the letters. Jane Street, a private trading firm with no rated debt, paid $1 billion for CoreWeave−8.68% — CoreWeave, down 8.68 percent today shares at $109 on April 15 and the same day committed roughly $6 billion to rent its compute 5.
It has since committed about $13 billion more to Crusoe$26.61B — Crusoe, private, latest valuation $26.61B, about $19 billion in total that no agency grades 6. CoreWeave, the landlord in the first deal, is the readout: its unsecured bonds broke 80 cents on the dollar in October at about a 14.8% yield, and CDS pricing implies a greater-than-60% chance of default within five years 57. Its founders have sold $3.3 billion of stock since the March 2025 IPO 7.
Jane Street's roughly $19 billion of AI commitments, none of it rated
- CoreWeave shares$1B5%
- CoreWeave compute rent$6B30%
- Crusoe chip clusters$13B65%
Data
| Slice | Value | Share |
|---|---|---|
| CoreWeave shares | $1B | 5% |
| CoreWeave compute rent | $6B | 30% |
| Crusoe chip clusters | $13B | 65% |
What the November 11 print decides
CoreWeave reports third-quarter results on November 11, with interest expense guided to $860–940 million 5. If net interest again outruns revenue, the market's verdict on the invisible layer hardens while the rated layer keeps borrowing at 7.5% 5.
S&P sees no disconnect yet warranting rating changes 1. The two halves are one balance sheet: hyperscalers fund the AI startups whose GPUs back the loans, and the $7 trillion buildout S&P itself projects through 2030 sits partly in structures it concedes it cannot see 1. The visible layer got priced this week at a premium. The invisible layer got repriced without one.
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