TSMC locked at its NT$2,020 limit-down as Taiwan's Taiex opened down a record 3,737 points
The Taiex opened November 6 with a record 3,737-point plunge that locked TSMC at its daily limit of NT$2,020; the stock closed at NT$2,135 after Taiwan authorized its stabilization fund, while US chip shares rebounded in premarket. The morning print came from the exchange's price band, and the band is not a valuation.
Richard Tang · 3 min read
Taiwan just gave the world a clean demonstration of what a limit-down price is. The Taiex opened Friday with the largest point fall in its history, and TSMC+5.37% — TSMC, up 5.37 percent today, more than 40 percent of the index by value, locked at NT$2,020, its daily floor, in the biggest intraday drop on record, erasing NT$5.7 trillion of market value 1.
Hours later the US semiconductor ETF was up almost 6 percent in premarket trading, and by the Taipei close TSMC traded at NT$2,135 25. The morning print came from the exchange's rulebook; by afternoon, Taipei and New York agreed on a higher number.
A political shock ran into a price band
The trigger was political, not corporate. After Democrats took both chambers of Congress and the governorship of Texas, a major data-center hub, investors began pricing the risk that AI data-center construction gets restricted 3. TSMC had no news of its own 4.
Foreign institutions had already sold a record net NT$994 billion of Taiwanese shares in October; November's first days added NT$500 billion more 3. On Friday that outflow met Taiwan's 10 percent daily limit, and TSMC pinned at the floor with sellers still queued, while analysts warned that margin calls on borrowed money would force more selling 1.
New York has no band: the ADR fell 9.3 percent Thursday and rebounded in Friday's premarket, and those are the prints that carry information 42. A limit-down price tells you where sellers ran out of permission, not where buyers stopped wanting the shares.
The state ended the day on the buy side
The unpinning came from Taipei's government. Near noon the Financial Supervisory Commission, Taiwan's market regulator, said it would meet on support measures, and bargain hunters moved in; the Taiex closed down 4.51 percent, with TSMC at NT$2,135 5. In the evening the National Financial Stabilization Fund, a state pool created in 2000, was authorized to intervene for the tenth time, while the regulator urged company buybacks and curbed the borrowing of shares to short 3. Anyone forced to sell at the floor handed the difference to whoever was free to buy there.
The demand record never moved
Nothing reported this week touched the business underneath. TSMC posted its sixth straight record quarterly profit in October, guided December revenue up another 14 percent, and stands by $60 to $64 billion of 2026 capital spending 64. September global chip sales rose 147 percent year on year, and Amazon+1.18% — Amazon, up 1.18 percent today reaffirmed about $220 billion of 2026 capex 7.
The ADR closed Thursday near 15 times forward earnings, against a five-year average of 18 4. When that record quarter landed we argued the AI bottleneck had moved to the bond market; this week it moved into the exchange's own rulebook.
Revenue has climbed almost every quarter for two years, and the December guide extends it
The guide the selloff ignored: another record quarter ahead
- Revenue
- Estimate
Data
| Revenue | |
|---|---|
| Q1 '24 | $18.5B |
| Q2 '24 | $20.7B |
| Q3 '24 | $24B |
| Q4 '24 | $26.7B |
| Q1 '25 | $25.4B |
| Q2 '25 | $31.9B |
| Q3 '25 | $32.5B |
| Q4 '25 | $33.5B |
| Q1 '26 | $35.4B |
| Q2 '26 | $39.8B |
| Q3 '26 | $46.7B |
| Q4 '26e (estimate) | $53.3B ($52.3–54.3B) |
Monday, then two company dates
Monday's Taipei open will show how much of the recovery holds. October sales, due next week, give the first read on the December guide; the 2027 outlook lands in mid-January 4. If Washington really throttles data-center construction, January is where it appears in numbers rather than in a price band. Until then, the company's own checks still show demand above supply 6, and the week's binding constraint was a rule about how far a price may fall in a day.
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