AppLovin, down 59% this year, beats its own guidance by $100 million and jumps 35.9% after hours
Revenue of $2.185 billion beat the top of management's own guidance by about $100 million, and a fourth-quarter guide above consensus lifted a stock down 59% in 2026 by as much as 35.9% after hours. Shareholders had spent the year selling on other companies' quarters while the advertisers who fund AppLovin kept spending more.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
The quarter that answered a year of selling
AppLovin+35.92% — AppLovin, up 35.92 percent today (Nasdaq: APP), which sells game studios and consumer advertisers the engine that decides where their ad money goes, closed Wednesday, November 4, at $274.62, down 59% for 2026 1. After-hours quotes climbed from up 16% 2 to up 24% 3 to about 35.9% 45, and the move held into Thursday, with the stock trading near $335 6. What moved it was the company's own arithmetic: third-quarter revenue of $2.185 billion, up 55% year over year, net income of $1.44 billion, up 72%, and a 66% net income margin 7.
Net income has more than doubled in eight quarters, reaching $1.44 billion
Data
| Net income | |
|---|---|
| Q4 '24 | $0.6B |
| Q1 '25 | $0.58B |
| Q2 '25 | $0.82B |
| Q3 '25 | $0.84B |
| Q4 '25 | $1.1B |
| Q1 '26 | $1.21B |
| Q2 '26 | $1.27B |
| Q3 '26 | $1.44B |
A $100 million beat of its own ceiling
Management guided to $2.055–2.085 billion of revenue 8; the quarter landed about $100 million above the top of that range, up 14% sequentially 5. The fourth-quarter guide of $2.365–2.395 billion clears the $2.25 billion consensus 2 and implies 43–44% growth 5. Free cash flow was $1.4 billion, 77% of adjusted EBITDA, against 53% conversion in the second quarter 5.
The board added $3.2 billion of buyback authorization, taking the total to $3.6 billion, after the company spent $1.4 billion repurchasing in the quarter 7. Chief financial officer Matt Stumpf said AppLovin stepped up the buying because it saw "a dislocation between the share price and its view of intrinsic value" 5.
Revenue climbed every quarter of 2026 while the stock fell 59%
Revenue rose every quarter of 2026 while the stock lost 59%
- Revenue
- Estimate
Data
| Revenue | |
|---|---|
| Q4 '24 | $1B |
| Q1 '25 | $1.16B |
| Q2 '25 | $1.26B |
| Q3 '25 | $1.41B |
| Q4 '25 | $1.66B |
| Q1 '26 | $1.84B |
| Q2 '26 | $1.92B |
| Q3 '26 | $2.19B |
| Q4 '26E (estimate) | $2.38B ($2.365–2.395B) |
Advertisers kept paying while the market kept cutting
Gaming revenue grew nearly 50% from a year earlier, and consumer-advertiser spending rose by triple digits year over year on a new generation of ad models partially rolled out 5. The bear case had leaned on other companies' numbers: Reddit+5.67% — Reddit, up 5.67 percent today and the gaming platform Roblox+7.48% — Roblox, up 7.48 percent today reported weaker user figures on October 29, and AppLovin fell 10% the next day to a 52-week low of $228.50 6. UBS cut its price target to $414 from $790 on October 28, citing slower consumer-advertiser growth, though Citi+1.52% — Citi, up 1.52 percent today kept a Buy at $500 6.
AppLovin's second-quarter filing showed installs down 10% in the first half while net revenue per install rose 75% 6, the disconnect tracked when Axon, its advertising engine, was taking 53% of iOS ad revenue.
The Unity dispute heads to arbitration
On October 2, a San Francisco judge denied AppLovin's request for a restraining order against Unity+4.99% — Unity, up 4.99 percent today, its rival in game advertising 9. AppLovin says Unity abused its position as a bidder on the MAX in-app bidding platform to steal protected data; Unity calls its Ad Quality software a publisher-authorized tool, and the dispute is moving to private arbitration 9.
Unity prints into a repriced tape
Chief executive Adam Foroughi supplied the caution himself: e-commerce advertisers spend heavily in the fourth quarter and less in the first, so bigger fourth quarters bring tougher first quarters 5. Unity (NYSE: U) reports its own third quarter before the market opens on November 5 10, the print our November 4 story on Unity tying $1.3 billion of studio ad financing to its data framework was waiting on.
Watch February's first-quarter guide, the pace of the $3.6 billion buyback, and whether installs, down 10% in the first half, turn up with fourth-quarter results.
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